Moderna says flu shot misses early success bar, but expects 2024 revenue
Send a link to a friend
[April 12, 2023]
By Patrick Wingrove and Bhanvi Satija
BOSTON (Reuters) -Moderna Inc said on Tuesday its experimental flu
vaccine did not meet the criteria for "early success" in a late-stage
trial, and its shares fell 3%.
The U.S. biotech company at its vaccine day meeting in Boston also said
it expects to have six major vaccines on the market in the next few
years. Its COVID-19 shot is currently the company's lone marketed
product.
The company is banking on its respiratory vaccine candidates to help
offset the expected steep fall in revenue from its hugely successful
COVID-19 vaccine. Analysts have forecast 2023 Moderna COVID vaccine
sales of around $7 billion, far less than the $18.4 billion windfall in
2022, due to decreasing demand.
That has increased investor scrutiny of Moderna's experimental
mRNA-based shots for flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
The company is testing whether its experimental flu shot, mRNA-1010, is
comparable to an approved flu vaccine in preventing the illness.
Moderna said there was not enough available data to determine if the flu
vaccine would succeed, and it is not clear whether it will accrue enough
information from the trial during the current flu season.
"We have not included enough cases to date at the interim analysis to
declare early success," said Moderna executive Raffael Nachbagauer at
the meeting.
Moderna President Stephen Hoge in an interview said he expected to start
generating revenue from the flu vaccine in 2024, although the amount
would depend on timing of the launch.
Moderna's decision to continue the trial comes months after data from an
earlier trial showed the shot generated a strong immune response against
influenza A strains, but failed to generate a similar response as the
approved vaccine for less-prevalent influenza B.
Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh said Tuesday's update removes some
near-term optimism around Moderna's flu vaccine.
[to top of second column]
|
A sign marks the headquarters of the
coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine maker Moderna in Cambridge,
Massachusetts, U.S., April 28, 2022. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
Moderna shares were off nearly 3% at
$155.60 after falling as low as $149.32 earlier in the day.
Moderna's pipeline includes an mRNA-based cancer vaccine, which has
been shown to work against melanoma in a mid-stage study. The
company is expected to share full data for that vaccine later this
week at a medical conference.
The company's RSV vaccine was shown to be 84% effective at
preventing at least two symptoms in older adults. Moderna expects to
launch the RSV vaccine next year, the first of several it hopes to
have approved in coming years.
Chief Financial Officer James Mock said he expected Moderna to set
up one to two partnerships per quarter to help the company develop
its mRNA platform, bring partner products to market or break into
new therapeutic areas.
"We want to continue to invest in our platform, and so that does
mean partnerships," he told Reuters.
Moderna forecast sales in the range of $8 billion to $15 billion in
2027 from its RSV and influenza vaccines and next-generation
COVID-19 shot.
SVB Securities analyst Mani Foroohar in a note said: "We remain
dubious of the company's ability to reach stated respiratory vaccine
franchise guidance."
Moderna estimates that the COVID-19 booster shot market will be
about $15 billon globally, assuming the same vaccination rate as
annual flu shots in older populations.
(Reporting by Bhanvi Satija in Bengaluru and Patrick Wingrove in
Boston, additional reporting by Aditya Samal in Bengaluru; Editing
by Shinjini Ganguli and Bill Berkrot)
[© 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |