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Marketmind: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again

[April 18, 2023] A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

With investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides.

China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 4.5% pace in the first quarter, largely reflecting a lifting of strict COVID curbs this year and annual retail sales growth that trebled in March to a racy 10.6%. Industry growth in the year to March also almost doubled, although a marginal miss on forecasts.

While last week's news of a March China export boom largely prepared markets for Tuesday's data beat, one upshot is that economists are now revising full-year growth forecasts higher. JPMorgan upgraded its 2023 call for China to 6.4% versus 6.0% on the news.

That rebound in global demand was also reflected in the latest U.S. factory soundings. The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State increased for the first time in five months in April as measures of new orders and shipments surged.

With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand.

Aside from the surprising miss from State Street, which saw its shares lose more than 9% on Monday, the rest of the big banks reporting first-quarter earnings appear to have put the March stress behind them.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon are among the big names reporting on Tuesday, along with streaming giant Netflix.

With attention on the extent of deposit flight from smaller U.S. banks, deposit rates are being forced higher and the improvement on returns for savers is likely to be both a drag on banks going forward but also a boon to household wealth.

As depositors demanded greater security and better returns, Apple said it aims to attract U.S. savers with a new high-yield deposit account, partnering with Goldman Sachs to offer users of its Apple Card 4.15% on savings accounts - 10 times higher than the national average.

The upshot for markets has been to underline recent stock market gains but switch the spotlight back on interest rates, which are creeping higher again as the worst fears for the March banking shock retreat into the rearview mirror.

Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. The VIX volatility gauge continued falling to its lowest since Jan 5, 2022.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

The take on the Fed is that futures now see a 90% chance of another quarter-point rate hike next month, with prior assumptions of a reversal of that move by September now being pushed out to November and year-end rates nudging up to 4.55%. Two-year Treasury yields hovered close to one-month highs of 4.21%.

With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling.

British wages rose faster than anticipated last month, in a move that economists judge may tip the Bank of England towards a further rise in interest rates next month, despite an unexpected increase in joblessness too.

As a reflection of how markets' prevailing views are being questioned, Bank of America's latest survey of fund managers showed investors had lifted bond allocations in April to the highest since 2009 and kept cash levels at an elevated 5.5%.

The resurfacing of U.S. debt ceiling tensions this week was another irritant for U.S. interest rates and bond markets on Tuesday, with the day's deadline for annual U.S. tax returns likely to allow a more accurate update on how long the Treasury coffers will last without a debt cap extension.

Elsewhere, billionaire Elon Musk said on Monday he will launch an artificial intelligence (AI) platform that he calls "TruthGPT" to challenge the offerings from Microsoft and Google.

Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

* U.S. March housing starts/permits, New York Fed's April service sector survey; Canada March inflation

* U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem testifies to parliament; Bank of England Executive Director for International Banks Supervision Sarah Breeden speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, Western Alliance Bancorp, Netflix, Lockheed Martin, Prologis, Johnson & Johnson, Omnicom, Intuitive Surgical, United Airlines)

(By Mike Dolan, mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD. Editing by Nick Macfie)

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