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Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina
weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally lowers
global temperatures slightly, the world will experience a return
to El Nino, the warmer counterpart, later this year.
During El Nino, winds blowing west along the equator slow down,
and warm water is pushed east, creating warmer surface ocean
temperatures.
"El Nino is normally associated with record breaking
temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in
2023 or 2024 is yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than
not," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU's Copernicus
Climate Change Service.
Climate models suggest a return to El Nino conditions in the
late boreal summer, and the possibility of a strong El Nino
developing towards the end of the year, Buontempo said.
The world's hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding
with a strong El Nino - although climate change has fuelled
extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon.
The last eight years were the world's eight hottest on record -
reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse
gas emissions.
Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at Imperial College London's
Grantham Institute, said El Nino-fuelled temperatures could
worsen the climate change impacts countries are already
experiencing - including severe heatwaves, drought and
wildfires.
"If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be
even hotter than 2016 – considering the world has continued to
warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels," Otto said.
EU Copernicus scientists published a report on Thursday
assessing the climate extremes the world experienced last year,
its fifth-warmest year on record.
Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, while
climate change-fuelled extreme rain caused disastrous flooding
in Pakistan, and in February, Antarctic sea ice levels hit a
record low.
The world's average global temperature is now 1.2C higher than
in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.
Despite most of the world's major emitters pledging to
eventually slash their net emissions to zero, global CO2
emissions last year continued to rise.
(Reporting by Kate Abnett, editing by Deepa Babington)
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