Sudan risks long conflict as entrenched rivals struggle for control
Send a link to a friend
[April 29, 2023]
By Aidan Lewis and Tom Perry
CAIRO (Reuters) - Sudan's warring factions are locked in a conflict that
two weeks of fighting shows neither can easily win, raising the spectre
of a drawn-out war between an agile paramilitary force and the
better-equipped army that could destabilise a fragile region.
Even with hundreds of people killed and the capital Khartoum turned into
a war zone, there has been little sign of compromise between army
commander Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the
paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commonly known as Hemedti.
Foreign mediators have struggled to arrest the slide to war: a series of
ceasefires brokered by the United States and others have been undermined
by shelling and air strikes in Khartoum and conflict elsewhere,
including the Darfur region in the west.
Giving a faint flicker of a hope, U.N. Sudan special envoy Volker
Perthes said on Saturday he saw signs of more openness to negotiations,
but renewed fighting was heard in the capital.
Hemedti and Burhan have both excluded the idea of negotiating with each
other in public comments since the fighting began.
An aide to Hemedti did not respond to questions from Reuters about
whether he was ready to negotiate or hold peace talks. Hemedti on April
20 said he would not sit with Burhan, who he called a "criminal".
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Apr/29/images/ads/current/heartland_lda_040123.jpg)
An aide to Burhan, asked the same questions, referred Reuters to
Burhan's remarks to U.S based al-Hurra TV this week, where he said he
cannot sit down with "the leader of the rebellion", a reference to
Hemedti.
The stakes couldn't be higher both for Sudan and seven neighouring
states where stability may be jolted by conflict in a country with a
history of civil strife, including the decades-long war that ended with
southern secession in 2011.
Despite its air force and tanks, the army has so far been unable to
dislodge RSF fighters spread out through Khartoum, which has been spared
violence in Sudan's past civil wars.
It spells a drawn-out fight for the capital on the Nile, where the army
said on Thursday RSF fighters were being defeated but a Western diplomat
assessed the RSF to have the upper hand.
Many civilians have fled the capital for safer areas. Residents have
described a rapid breakdown as gangs and looters maraud in empty
streets, neighbourhoods are rocked by air strikes and shelling, and food
and fuel run low.
Even if the army can prevail in Khartoum, analysts worry the stage is
being set for a return to the usual pattern of Sudan's internal wars --
pitting the nation's military run by a powerful elite in the capital
against those hailing from the regions angry at being marginalised, such
as Darfur, the region where Hemedti and his RSF first emerged as a
fighting force.
A senior regional diplomat described the situation as "terrifying".
"We will have a lot of fragmentation," the diplomat said, expressing
concern about renewed conflict between the centre in Khartoum and
peripheral regions in the country of 46 million.
NO GOOD SCENARIOS
Tensions had been simmering for months between Hemedti and Burhan over
how the RSF - estimated at 100,000 - should be integrated into the
Sudanese army under an internationally-backed framework deal for
civilian government, and over the chain of command in the lead up to
elections.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Apr/29/images/ads/current/humanesociety_sda022411.png)
[to top of second column]
|
![](../images/042923PIX/news_s93.jpg)
Sudanese refugees who have fled the
violence in their country queue to receive food supplements from
World Food Programme (WFP) near the border between Sudan and Chad in
Adre April 26, 2023. REUTERS/Mahamat Ramadane
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Apr/29/images/ads/current/businessdirectory_dailycover_2023.png)
A former Darfur militia leader, Hemedti had grown powerful as
enforcer for veteran autocrat Omar al-Bashir, and rich thanks to the
gold trade. He served as Burhan's deputy on Sudan's ruling council
after Bashir's overthrow.
Hemedti insisted the RSF's integration should be stretched over 10
years, in line with details of a framework transition plan, sources
familiar with the talks have said, while the army wanted a much
shorter time frame.
Underlining the difficult outlook for peacemaking, mediators aimed
at getting a ceasefire in place and to "stabilise the situation in
that way, rather than going for some kind of big bang peace deal",
the Western diplomat said.
"What are they going to talk about that wasn't on the table before
the conflict started?" said the diplomat, adding that neither side
could win a decisive military victory or control of all Sudan's
territory.
Ahmed Soliman of Chatham House, a think-tank in London, said he
foresaw "very bad scenarios either way with a limited likelihood of
a short-term resolution that would halt the fighting permanently".
"You have the RSF as a much more mobile force - very battle hardened
using guerrilla tactics in urban areas - while the Sudanese armed
forces have air power, tanks and better logistics," he said.
The army appeared to be trying to hunt down Hemedti in the hope of
dealing a killer blow to the RSF, he said.
"Over time they might be able to push the RSF out of Khartoum ... if
that scenario plays out there would be increased contestation in the
Darfur region, the effects of which we are already starting to see,"
he said.
FOREIGN PRESSURE
The violence risks burying once and for all a political process that
was supposed to establish democracy in Sudan after Bashir and his
Islamist political base were ousted in 2019 following three decades
in charge.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2019/Sep/05/images/ads/current/stclara_lda_SPONSOR_090519.png)
Sudanese who have struggled for civilian rule worry the clock is
being turned back, and that the mayhem may allow the military to
entrench its grip on power alongside a comeback by members of
Bashir's administration.
Echoing army statements, a Sudanese government official described
the conflict as between a legitimate army and a rebel militia that
must surrender and with which there can be no negotiation.
The RSF, which has bases across Sudan, has meanwhile depicted the
army as "extremists", an apparent reference to the influence Hemedti
says Islamists wield in the military.
Analysts believe foreign powers with sway over the sides - notably
Egypt which has close ties to the army and Gulf Arab states seen to
have influence over Hemedti - could yet put more pressure on them to
deescalate.
"The chances of a permanent ceasefire will increase if both sides
can be brought to realise they have nothing to gain from this
conflict," said Willow Berridge, a historian, adding that regional
powers could play a role convincing them.
(Additional reporting by Samia Nakhoul, Tala Ramadan and Nafisa
Eltahir; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by William Maclean)
[© 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |