China can no longer 'extend and pretend' on municipal debt
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[August 07, 2023] By
Kevin Yao and Samuel Shen
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's promised "basket of measures" to defuse
local government debt risks is likely to include special bond issuance,
debt swaps, loan rollovers, and something Beijing really loathes:
dipping into the central budget.
Local governments are fundamental to China's economy, with Beijing
tasking provincial and city officials with meeting ambitious growth
targets. But after years of over-investment in infrastructure,
plummeting returns from land sales and soaring COVID costs, economists
say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to China's
economy.
Chinese leaders last month pledged, without detailing, to help ease
their debts, signaling worries over a potential chain of municipal debt
defaults destabilizing the financial sector.
Economists took that message as being more constructive than in April,
when Communist Party leaders demanded "strict control" of local debts.
The implication, they say, is that Beijing has realized it needs to
urgently throw cash at the problem.
That could represent a major breakthrough in finding a way out of
China's municipal debt crisis, with Beijing having for years demanded
that local administrations sort themselves out.
"The local debt problem is complex so you cannot simply say you don’t
want to take responsibility," said Guo Tianyong, professor at the
Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, explaining the
politburo's directions.
The extent of any central government involvement, and any conditions
attached to it, are still subject to debate, two policy advisers told
Reuters. Whether the package of measures will be a short-term or
multi-year plan also remains unknown.
These details will be key for investors to gauge how decisive and
long-lasting Beijing's solution will be.
"The size of any restructuring and the scale of the problem Beijing
acknowledges is important to the success of this effort," said Logan
Wright, a partner at Rhodium Group.
BEIJING'S DILEMMA
Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion), or 76%
of economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. Part of it is debt
issued by local government finance vehicles (LGFVs), which cities use to
raise money for infrastructure projects. The International Monetary Fund
expects LGFV debt to reach $9 trillion this year.
The central government, which has repeatedly warned about "hidden debt
risks" worries the numbers are even higher when accounting for any debt
issued outside municipal balance sheets.
It is an unsustainable situation that puts Beijing in a bind: provide no
help and the economic model unravels with severe consequences on growth
and social stability, or step in at the risk of encouraging more
reckless spending.
"A principle should be established: not all debt will be assumed by the
central government," a policy adviser told Reuters on condition of
anonymity.
"This could lead to moral hazard."
To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of
the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and
society at large.
OPTIONS
Most economists expect Beijing to instruct state-owned banks to keep
rolling over maturing debt with longer-term loans at lower interest
rates, a strategy often referred to as "extend and pretend."
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Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are
seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022.
REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/File Photo
The banks, however, need to be selective based on the magnitude and
urgency of any refinancing task. Debt restructurings hurt their own
balance sheet, hampering their ability to finance other parts of the
economy.
For many local governments "to keep vital functions you need
transfers from Beijing and to develop you need to issue bonds - the
central leadership is aware of that," a source at a state bank told
Reuters after a recent work trip to two indebted provinces.
Local governments themselves will have responsibilities, above all
to come clean.
Local governments are likely to use left-over bond issuance quotas
from last year to swap "hidden debt" with official bonds on their
balance sheet, according to analysts, with up to 2.6 trillion yuan
to be issued.
Such a move has a precedent. From 2015 to 2018, local governments
issued some 12 trillion yuan of bonds to swap for off-balance sheet
debt.
Beijing may also ask certain localities to sell or leverage assets
to raise funds.
“Extension of local government and LGFV debt and de facto
restructuring, especially with banks, will likely be encouraged,
while local governments may also be pushed to sell or mortgage some
assets,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS.
Then comes frugal Beijing, which has most room for maneuver, with a
central government debt of only 21% of GDP.
Beijing issued 1 trillion yuan in special bonds in 2020 to cope with
the pandemic, 1.55 trillion in 2007 to recapitalize its sovereign
wealth fund and 270 billion yuan in 1998 to recapitalize the "big
four" state banks.
“The central government can issue low-cost bonds to replace local
debt," a second policy adviser said.
China's 10-to-30-year government bonds yield 2.7%-3.0%. Some cities
and LGFVs pay 7-10% interest.
Guo, the professor, said such swaps should exceed 1 trillion yuan
this year to make a difference.
More generous direct fiscal transfers for funding vital public
services could also be thrown into the basket, analysts say. That
path is well-trodden: the finance ministry expects a record 10
trillion yuan in such transfers this year, up 3.6% from 2022.
For the local debt problem to stop re-occurring policymakers need to
implement profound changes to how the economy works.
BBVA analysts suggest diluting the growth performance criteria in
evaluating local government officials.
But ultimately Beijing, and the Chinese society, may have to accept
lower growth after four decades of expansion at a staggering pace.
"Whether Beijing will be able to accept a significant slowdown in
local government investment, and therefore economic growth, will be
one of the most important questions in any restructuring," Rhodium's
Wright said.
($1 = 7.1780 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Editing by Marius Zaharia and Lincoln Feast)
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