Organize or fight? Three years in exile, Belarus opposition divided
about path
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[August 08, 2023]
By Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska
WARSAW (Reuters) - Pavel Maryeuski, 33, was an activist committed to
peaceful politics who had never held a weapon, when he fled his native
Belarus after President Alexander Lukashenko's crackdown on protests
following an election three years ago.
Last year, when Russia invaded Ukraine, he felt the call to battle, and
joined a Belarus volunteer unit fighting in support of Ukraine at the
front.
"At first I thought about Ukraine, about Ukrainians and about protecting
life," he told Reuters in Poland. "Then I thought about Belarus."
If Russia loses, there could be change in Belarus too. And his fellow
veterans of the Ukraine conflict are bound to play a role in the fight
for their own country.
"I see this as an opportunity for us Belarusians to return home."
On the third anniversary of the election her followers believe she won,
Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 40, has all the
trappings of a leader in waiting: a cabinet in exile, diplomatic
missions, regular meetings with Western dignitaries.
With nearly all the opposition now in jail or exile, that is no small
feat. The opposition is diverse and diffuse, probably comprising a few
thousand of the 100,000 people estimated to have fled the country in the
past three years, with politics ranging from liberalism to nationalism.
UNITED BY ANGER
Many face lengthy sentences for criminal charges in absentia should they
return to Belarus. Reuters spoke to more than 20 opposition figures to
gauge their mood three year after the election that ignited the
crackdown. Most see little path to a quick victory over a leader in
power for nearly 30 years.
They are divided over tactics, but they are united by their anger at
Lukashenko's continued rule, his jailing and torturing of thousands of
opponents, and his close alliance with Russia which they say negates
Belarus's sovereignty.
"We managed to maintain the unity of democratic forces and restructure
them, that is, create new bodies and maintain cooperation between
political actors and civic initiatives," Tsikhanouskaya told Reuters
last week in a Zoom interview from Lithuania.
She still has hopes even of opening up dialogue one day with officials
still serving the government in Minsk: "Perhaps some of them will have
enough common sense, and will understand that Lukashenko is leading
Belarus nowhere, that he is selling our sovereignty," she said.
Stanislava Glinnik, whose grandfather was Belarus's first post-Soviet
head of state until he lost the last competitive election to Lukashenko
in 1994, is now part of a body called the Coordination Council, a
network for civil society groups.
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Faces of Belarusian political prisoners
are painted on a graffiti in Warsaw, Poland, July 25, 2023. REUTERS/Kuba
Stezycki
"This is no longer opposition, it is a real government-in-exile,"
she told Reuters, sitting in Karma, a bar in Warsaw that used to be
based in Minsk.
Opposition groups now maintain more than 20 alternative embassies,
consulates or information centers for Belarusians abroad, and run at
least two intelligence bodies seeking to influence events in
Belarus.
Activists help Belarusians escape abroad, hackers are developing
apps that allow safe communication within Belarus and some groups
track the location of troops in the country.
But a small but growing number of activists, many with combat
experience in Ukraine, say it is time to train for a real fight.
At a conference in Poland last week, some of the biggest applause
went to a veteran of combat in Ukraine, Pavel Kuhta, who gave a
fiery speech denouncing members of Tsikhanouskaya's exiled cabinet
for failing to do enough to organize armed resistance.
Sergey Kedyshko, 47, who leads a group of around 200 Belarusian
volunteers conducting combat training in Poland and Lithuania,
agreed with the premise that the opposition needs to get more
fighting fit.
"When some kind of military action takes place, when it is necessary
to act very quickly and effectively, the Belarusian opposition
always lags behind, so we are losing," he said.
Six weeks ago, there was a brief jolt of hope for the Belarus
opposition, when Russia's Wagner mercenary group launched a mutiny
inside Russia.
At the height of the uprising, with Wagner fighters bearing down on
Moscow, Tsikhanouskaya tweeted that she was "establishing a United
Operational Headquarters" to "coordinate our activities at this
critical time".
With Lukashenko's Kremlin sponsors in jeopardy, he was suddenly
weaker than ever, she said.
But within hours, Lukashenko himself helped bring an end to the
Russian mutiny, negotiating for Wagner fighters to move to Belarus.
Weeks later, hundreds of battle-hardened fighters arrived. The
opposition's optimism swiftly fizzled.
Exactly what role the Wagner fighters will play in Belarus is
anyone's guess, but for the opposition, nothing good can come of it,
said Kedyshko.
"The situation is getting worse."
(Reporting by Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska; Editing by Mike
Collett-White and Peter Graff)
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