Israel-Hezbollah tensions elevate risks of conflict
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[August 17, 2023]
By James Mackenzie, Dan Williams, Maya Gebeily and Laila
Bassam
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters) - An escalating war of words between Israel
and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon echoes heightened tension at the
border, with each vowing to return the other to the "stone age" and
preparing for a possible conflict even as they deny seeking one.
Israel and Hezbollah have avoided war across the Lebanese-Israeli
frontier since their last major clash 17 years ago, deterred by mutual
threats of destruction. Syria has meanwhile served as an arena for their
conflict.
But the calm has been put under strain by a series of incidents which
have added to the risks of escalation as regional tensions simmer over
Iran's nuclear program and as Israel-Palestinian violence surges,
analysts say.
The tensions come against the backdrop of a political crisis in Israel
that has emboldened its enemies. Hezbollah, relishing the sight of some
reservists refusing to serve, says Israel is now weaker. Israel says its
foes are overestimating the impact.
Israel says Hezbollah is acting ever more brazenly, most notably in
March when it blamed the group for a roadside bombing that wounded a
motorist. Far from the border, the infiltration marked a type of attack
Hezbollah is not known to have tried previously. Hezbollah has not
denied responsibility.
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An Israeli defense official told Reuters the attack was meant to cause
major casualties and "had that happened, the northern front would have
gone up in flames".
The recent spate of incidents at the border has included rockets being
fired at Israel during flare-ups of Israeli-Palestinian violence, and
members of Hezbollah or its supporters facing off with Israeli forces.
Tensions have also simmered over a tent pitched by Hezbollah on land
which U.N. peacekeepers say is on the Israeli side of the Blue Line - a
U.N.-mapped frontier marking the line to which Israeli forces withdrew
when they left south Lebanon in 2000.
Hezbollah has meanwhile accused Israel of "dangerous measures" in Ghajar,
a border village partly claimed by Lebanon which has been fully
enveloped into Israel by a fence.
'MORE AND MORE BRAZEN'
Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, in an Aug. 7 media
briefing, said Hezbollah was becoming "more and more brazen",
speculating that Iran was trying to convince the group "to take more and
more risks, and we would be sucked into this conflict even though we
don't want any conflict in Lebanon".
Hezbollah's media office did not respond to a request for comment.
Iranian authorities were not immediately available for comment.
A source familiar with Hezbollah thinking said it had taken a decision
not to allow any provocations to prompt war and wanted to preserve the
calm. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the
sensitivities, added that when Hezbollah wants to go to war, this would
be the result of a decision and not a provocation.
Israel sees Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982,
as the biggest threat at its borders.
The 2006 war killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157
Israelis, mostly soldiers.
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![](../images/081723PIX/news_v38.jpg)
Lebanese army members stand on an
observation tower during a Lebanese army media tour in Naqoura, near
the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, August 8, 2023.
REUTERS/Aziz Taher
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Since then, Hezbollah's arsenal has expanded.
In a speech marking the conflict's anniversary, Hezbollah cleric
Hassan al-Baghdadi said its weaponry had stopped Israel from waging
war. But Israel, he said, was in "dire need" of a war to forge unity
because of its crisis.
A Western diplomat said there was a "risk that Hezbollah and others
misinterpret what is happening in Israel as a signal of weakness:
that they get over-confident and think they can do something".
"The Israelis are more concerned about the possibility of conflict
with Hezbollah than they were 12 or 24 months ago," the diplomat
said, adding that while this did not make conflict inevitable, the
risk had increased.
WAR GAMES
Hezbollah invited media in May to watch its elite Radwan fighters
simulate an invasion of Israel.
Israel has also been preparing.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in June published a video showing
the convening of his security cabinet in Tel Aviv military
headquarters to simulate a war on Hezbollah and Iran.
"The tension has significantly increased over the last two or three
months. But ultimately life goes on as usual," an Israeli military
officer told Reuters.
Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said an
emboldened Hezbollah was seeking to "change the rules of engagement"
while tightening its alliance with Palestinian factions in the
occupied West Bank and Gaza.
"There's now a rule in which if there's a violation in Jerusalem at
Al-Aqsa Mosque or extended escalation in Palestinian territories,
Lebanon's southern borders witness skirmishes or rocket launches,"
he said.
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"It's a very risky business."
Lebanon can ill afford conflict four years into a financial meltdown
that has paralysed the state. Hezbollah last year gave its blessing
to a maritime border deal with Israel that allows Lebanon to explore
for offshore energy.
Major General Lázaro, commander of the UNIFIL peacekeeping force,
expressed concern over incidents along the Blue Line which have
increased tensions at a meeting with Israeli and Lebanese officers,
UNIFIL said.
UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said none of the incidents
escalated "thanks to our work and the commitment of the parties".
"Nonetheless, any incident always has the potential to become
something more."
(Additional reporting by Tom Perry in Beirut; Writing by Tom Perry;
Editing by Nick Macfie)
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