Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma
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[August 23, 2023] By
Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) -Euro zone business activity declined far more than
thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while
some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed.
Wednesday's purchasing managers' indexes complicate matters for the
European Central Bank which wants to control still rampant price rises
without causing a recession.
It is expected to pause interest rate hikes in September, according to a
narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters, despite elevated
inflation. A further rise in rates by year-end remains on the cards,
however, following the central bank's most aggressive policy tightening
cycle.
"The continuing sharp drop in the PMI data will test the ECB's growth
optimism," said Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.
"We are expecting the ECB to pause in September, but it is not clear
that inflation is where the ECB wants it yet. A pause should not be
misinterpreted as the peak."
Activity in the bloc's dominant services industry declined for the first
time this year and the contraction in manufacturing output continued,
although there were some signs of a turnaround for factories.
HCOB's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the bloc,
compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good barometer of overall economic
health, dropped to 47.0 in August from July's 48.6, its lowest since
November 2020.
That was well below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and
lower than all expectations in a Reuters poll which had predicted a
slight dip to 48.5.
A chunk of that activity was driven by firms completing old orders, with
the backlogs of work index falling to its lowest since June 2020 when
the COVID pandemic was cementing its grip on the world.
Business activity in Germany, Europe's largest economy, contracted at
the fastest pace for more than three years as a deepening downturn in
manufacturing output was accompanied by a renewed contraction in
services, an earlier survey showed.
Firms there remained pessimistic about the outlook as rising interest
rates, customer uncertainty and high inflation continued to weigh on
demand.
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People walk past a restaurant at the
Butte Montmartre in Paris, France, July 10, 2023. REUTERS/Sarah
Meyssonnier/File Photo
In France, the dominant services sector contracted further as falls
in demand and new orders hinted there would be a contraction in the
euro zone's second-biggest economy this quarter.
Britain's economy, outside the European Union, looks on course to
shrink in the third quarter and risks falling into a recession as
its PMI showed a slump in factory output and broader weakness in the
face of higher interest rates.
Euro zone government bond yields and the euro tumbled after
Wednesday's data as traders bet the ECB may soon pause its
interest-rate hiking campaign.
SERVICE SECTOR SLIDES
The euro zone services PMI sank as indebted consumers feeling the
pinch from rising borrowing costs reined in spending.
Demand fell sharply as prices rising far faster than the ECB would
like put off customers. The services output prices index remained
elevated at 55.9, albeit the lowest since October 2021 and below
July's 56.1.
"Another weak PMI for the euro zone confirms a sluggish economy with
recession as a downside risk. Inflation pressures for services
remain stubborn as wage pressures continue to be a concern," said
Bert Colijn at ING.
"The latter adds to our expectations that the ECB's hiking cycle is
not over yet."
Inflation was 5.3% in July, official data showed, more than double
the ECB's 2% target but well below readings seen late last year.
Manufacturing activity has been in decline since mid-2022, but the
latest PMI survey offered some hope the nadir may have been passed.
The headline index rose to 43.7 from 42.7, its first uptick in seven
months and confounding expectations in the Reuters poll for a dip to
42.6.
Optimism among factory purchasing managers improved, also suggesting
the worst may be over for manufacturers.
(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Toby
Chopra)
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