What's at stake in Russia's assault on Avdiivka?
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[December 01, 2023]
By Dan Peleschuk and Andrew Osborn
KYIV/LONDON (Reuters) - Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the
eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, seeking to encircle Kyiv's troops
there as Moscow's war in Ukraine grinds on.
The fighting is reminiscent of a battle for another eastern city,
Bakhmut, which fell to Russian forces last May after months of brutal
urban combat.
Since Moscow launched its renewed offensive around Avdiivka in October,
Ukraine's top general and Western military experts have made downbeat
assessments of Ukraine's ability to break Russian lines.
In Kyiv and Western capitals, there is an acknowledgement that Russia's
full-scale invasion more than 21 months ago, which Moscow calls a
"special military operation", could drag on into a much longer war.
WHAT IS AVDIIVKA?
Avdiivka, which had a pre-war population of around 32,000, has been a
frontline city since 2014, when it was briefly occupied by Moscow-backed
separatists who seized a swathe of eastern Ukraine in what Kyiv and the
West.
Avdiivka, much of it now damaged, is home to Ukraine's largest coke
plant, a Soviet-era facility which before the war was one of Europe's
top producers of the fuel.
The plant, which Moscow says is being used by Ukrainian forces as a base
and weapons storage facility, is now the primary focus of Russian
attacks.
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Located just north of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in the
industrial Donbas region, Avdiivka hosts deeply entrenched Ukrainian
defences.
Today, just 1,500 residents - many sheltering in cellars and basements -
are estimated to remain in Avdiivka, where officials say not a single
building remains intact.
FIERCE FIGHTING
Ukrainian and Western analysts say Russia's renewed offensive on
Avdiivka, its largest operation since the assault on Bakhmut, is
proceeding at an extremely high human cost.
In a Nov. 27 update, British military intelligence said the fighting had
contributed to "some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so
far".
"Every day there are new fresh forces, regardless of the weather,
regardless of anything - of losses," one member of Ukraine's 47th
Separate Mechanized Brigade told Radio Liberty.
"But no matter what, they keep crawling, literally over the bodies of
their own."
Andrei Gurulyov, a Russian lawmaker and retired military officer, has
said the offensive has shown the need for Russian forces to improve
their ability to attack.
Russian war bloggers, whom the Kremlin's media handlers have brought
under tighter control, have acknowledged heavy losses on their own side
but pointed to significant Ukrainian losses too.
The main war bloggers' collective account on the Telegram messaging
service - "Operation Z: War Correspondents of the Russian Spring" - has
given its more than 1.3 million followers detailed accounts of what it
says is the steady but hard-won progress of Russian forces in Avdiivka.
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![](../images/120123PIX/news_l93.jpg)
A local resident walks in front of damaged residential buildings,
amid Russia's attack non Ukraine, in the town of Avdiivka, Donetsk
region, Ukraine October 17, 2023. REUTERS/Yevhen Titov
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It has described how they have been using air strikes with targeting
assistance from special forces, artillery, drones, helicopters,
tanks and infantry against heavily dug-in Ukrainian troops.
Semyon Pegov, a prominent Russian war blogger who has attended
Kremlin meetings with President Vladimir Putin, has described
Avdiivka, which Russians call Avdeevka, as "a fortress" with
numerous concrete-reinforced bunkers.
Pegov, who has likened the fighting to trench warfare in World War
One, said Russian forces took control of Avdiivka's industrial zone
in recent days and that Russian cluster munitions were inflicting
"huge losses" on Ukrainian forces.
The Russian defence ministry issues spare but regular updates.
Unlike late Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces
spearheaded the assault on Bakhmut, it does not offer predictions or
set out its aims.
WHAT'S AT STAKE?
Both sides see Avdiivka as key to Russia's aim of wresting full
control of the two eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk - two of
the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not
have full control of.
Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, about 15 km (9 miles)
to the south, whose residential areas Russian officials say have
been regularly shelled by Ukrainian forces.
Pushing Ukrainian forces out of Avdiivka would be seen as enlarging
the amount of territory Russia controls and making Donetsk city
safer.
Seizing Avdiivka could boost Russian morale and deal a psychological
blow to Ukrainian forces, which have made only incremental gains in
a counteroffensive launched in June.
Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies,
an official think-tank in Kyiv, said taking Avdiivka would not
"decisively" tip the situation in Moscow's favour but "would make
the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian
logistics hub."
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Bielieskov believes the campaign to capture Avdiivka is mostly
driven by what he called the Kremlin's eagerness to "strengthen the
hand of Western sceptics" who are calling for a cut in military and
financial support for Kyiv, citing the limited impact of billions of
dollars in military aid.
(Reporting by Dan Peleschuk and Andrew Osborn; Editing by Mike
Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)
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