Biden backers rev up write-in campaign in New Hampshire to avoid loss
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[December 01, 2023]
By Jarrett Renshaw
(Reuters) - President Joe Biden's name will not be on New Hampshire's
primary ballot, but top Democrats are organizing a shoe-string, write-in
campaign aimed at preventing an embarrassing loss for the president that
might fuel concerns about his 2024 election prospects.
Thousands of voters have already committed to the effort along with
county and local party chairs, said California Congressman Ro Khanna,
who will lead a call with organizers on Thursday evening on the effort.
For an incumbent president, primary races -- the state-by-state
competitions that nominate a political party's official presidential
candidate -- are normally a perfunctory affair.
But Biden's decision to sit out New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation
primary on Jan. 23 and ongoing concerns about his general election
prospects have attracted intra-party rivals for the White House like
Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips.
Phillips and others hope to use New Hampshire as a way to transform
their long-shot bids into credible candidacies - a strategy that has
some historical precedent.
Pro-Biden Democrats' volunteer-focused effort, with just a $100,000
budget, will encourage primary voters to put Biden's name on the New
Hampshire ballot. The plan includes putting a volunteer to explain the
process at each of New Hampshire's over-300 polling stations, and
distributing pamphlets and printouts.
"It speaks to the loyalty that so many people have in New Hampshire for
the Democratic Party and the President," Khanna said in an interview.
New Hampshire represents the first test of voter enthusiasm for a
president battered by a series of polls that show his multi-racial and
multi-generational coalition fraying, and its success or failure will be
closely watched.
"This write-in campaign is not quite an insurance policy, but it's
definitely a rearguard action to fight against 'What if Biden doesn't
win the New Hampshire primary' and what that would signal to the press
and to the rest of the political world," said Andrew Smith, a political
science professor at The University of New Hampshire.
Lyndon B. Johnson, then the Democratic incumbent, shunned the New
Hampshire primary in 1968 due to over-confidence, only to see an
insurgent campaign from Minnesota, U.S. Senator Eugene McCarthy and his
anti-Vietnam platform. Johnson supporters mounted a barely successful
write-campaign, but a weakened Johnson dropped out of the race weeks
later.
The primary will also offer the state's Democratic voters their first
chance to protest Biden's decision to replace New Hampshire at the top
of the party's primary calendar with South Carolina.
At about 90% non-Hispanic white, versus less than 60% in the rest of the
country, New Hampshire is no longer considered a good predictor of
Democratic presidential success. But New Hampshire officials refused to
change the state's primary date; as a result, the Democratic winner will
not amass any delegates needed to win the nomination. PHILLIPS BUS TOUR
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U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on infrastructure projects
at the Portsmouth Port Authority in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, U.S.
April 19, 2022. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
Biden is not expected to campaign in the state ahead of the primary
and his rivals - Phillips and self-help guru Marianne Williamson -
are seizing on his absence.
Phillips is kicking off a 10-day tour of New Hampshire on Friday
that includes traditional stops at diners and college campuses and
fundraisers in private homes.
Pass the Torch, a super PAC supporting Phillips is running ads in
New Hampshire critical of Biden, including one titled 'Trump is
Winning' and another that compares Biden’s campaign to a burning
dynamite fuse.
Phillips campaign acknowledges that winning the state's primary will
be tough.
"He is still the sitting president of the United States. And so he
starts off with an incredible advantage, whether his name is on the
ballot or not," said Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to the Phillips
campaign and one time campaign manager for U.S. Senator Bernie
Sanders presidential bid.
WRITE IN EDUCATION
Most, if not all, U.S. elections allow voters to write in candidates
whose names are not the the ballot, but the effort is rarely
successful at electiong one, outside local contests where turnout is
low. U.S. voters sometimes register their frustration with voting
choices by writing in names like Batman and Mickey Mouse.
Biden write-in organizers have largely settled on asking voters to
write in "Joe Biden," but believe that other names like "President
Biden" and "President Biden and Vice President Harris" satisfy a
state law that says to count the vote if the reasonable intent of
the voter is clear.
"That's our job. We want voters to get there and know what to do,"
said Dave Watters, a Democratic state senator who is helping
organize.
In 2020, when there was a competitive Democratic race, including
Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and current Transportation Secretary Pete
Buttigieg, some 298,000 Democrats voted in the New Hamphsire primary
- more than five times the number that voted when incumbent
Democratic President Barack Obama ran unopposed in 2012.
Turnout in 2024 is likely going to be closer to 2012 figures than
2020, local Democrats say, but they are overwhelmingly confident
that Biden will win. They hope to be rewarded in 2028 when the party
once again considers New Hampshire's position in the early
nominating calendar.
"They're gonna use this as a way to say, look, we are good Democrats
and organized this to protect President Biden," Smith said.
(Reporting By Jarrett Renshaw; Editing by Heather Timmons and
Alistair Bell)
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