Marketmind: Buoyant markets hold near year's highs
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[December 04, 2023] A
look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After closing at their highest level of the year on Friday, U.S. stocks
mostly hogged those gains into the new week - with 'peak rates'
optimism, Friday's U.S. jobs report and falling oil prices jockeying
with edgy geopolitics for attention.
The S&P500 recorded its highest close since March 2022 on Friday - the
month the Federal Reserve started its brutal five-percentage-point-plus
interest rate squeeze. It's now just shy of a 20% gain for the year to
date.
The milestone was hit as Fed boss Jerome Powell, for many investors at
least, gave his clearest signal yet that the rate campaign is over and
the central bank was now weighing the effects and when it may be able to
ease back.
"We are getting what we wanted to get," Powell said during an event at
Spelman College in Atlanta, noting the "full effects" of the Fed's rate
hikes have not yet been felt.
Powell added that "the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming
more balanced" and the data would guide them from here.
Fed futures markets think a first cut may come as soon as March - with a
quarter-point easing by then already two-thirds priced. Two-year
Treasury yields hit their lowest since June on Friday and 10-year yields
their lowest in three months, although they edged higher on Monday.
Encouraging the disinflationary theme, oil prices extended declines,
pressured by investor skepticism over the latest OPEC+ decision on
supply cuts and uncertainty surrounding global fuel demand. U.S. crude
hit its lowest in two weeks and is tracking year-on-year losses of
almost 10%.
With rate cuts expected at least as soon as the Fed in Europe and around
the world, the dollar held up well.
Attention turns squarely to the labor market this week, with a series of
updates on jobs and hiring that culminates in the November payrolls
report on Friday. Hiring is expected to have picked up last month, but
with the jobless rate staying at 3.9%.
Wall St stocks futures held the bulk of Friday's gains before the bell
on Monday - giving back just 0.2%.
Some concerns about the resumption of fighting in Gaza and attacks on
commercial shipping in the Red Sea saw volatility levels pop marginally
higher and gold prices briefly surged to a new record before giving back
all of those gains.
One of the worries about U.S. stock gains in the year to date has been
the breadth, or lack of it, with a narrow leadership of megacap tech
names. But that is widening into yearend as peak rate hopes encourage
some rotation to smaller cap stocks. The S&P equal-weighted index is now
up 6% for 2023.
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The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange
(NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S.,
March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
World stocks were generally holding up too.
But the relentless underperformance of China continued and the
blue-chip CSI 300 Index fell 0.7%. Tech giants listed in Hong Kong
fell for a fifth straight session, sliding 1.9%.
WuXi Biologics plunged more than 20% on a disappointing earnings
forecast and that weighed on Hong Kong markets generally - but the
mood among foreign investors at least is dour.
Chinese equities saw net outflows from long/short fund managers for
a fourth successive month, mainly due to a reduction in long bets,
Goldman Sachs' prime services team said in a report on Monday,
without revealing the figure.
The only positive was a near-10% jump in ailing Evergrande, which
said it has been granted an adjournment of a court hearing into a
liquidation petition to Jan. 29.
In Europe, Greece's 10-year government bond yield dropped to its
lowest level since June after ratings agency Fitch upgraded the
country's sovereign credit rating to investment grade, citing the
sharp downward trend in general government debt.
Bitcoin joined gold's latest surge and broke above $40,000 for the
first time since May 2022 as it rides a wave of momentum on peak
interest rates.
In corporate news, music streaming giant Spotify said it will lay
off around 1,500 employees, or 17% of its headcount, to bring down
costs, after letting 600 of its staff go in January, and 200 more in
June.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets
later on Monday:
* U.S. Oct factory goods orders
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks
* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
* U.S. corporate earnings: GitLab, RGC Resources, Fusion Fuel Green,
Joann
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Kirsten Donovan mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
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