Stocks, gold gain as investors stay cheery on rate outlook
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[December 06, 2023] By
Amanda Cooper
LONDON (Reuters) -Global equities rose on Wednesday after U.S.
employment data reinforced investors' convictions that rates may soon
start to fall, which has pushed down bond yields and lifted gold in the
past few trading days.
The flow of trade across the markets was relatively calm, with measures
of volatility steady around their recent lows, as investors waiting for
a read of U.S. private sector job growth later in the day.
A separate look at job openings on Tuesday showed a bit more softness
than expected but not so much as to point to a steeper slowdown in
employment, while activity in the U.S. services sector held up last
month.
U.S. Treasury yields held roughly around their lowest in three months,
while futures markets show traders are placing a two-in-three chance of
a rate cut by March, which in turn gave gold another boost and
underpinned stocks.
The MSCI All-World was up 0.2%, while in Europe, the STOXX 600 rose
0.2%. German's DAX, which contains a number of tech and industrial
heavyweights, hit record highs.
Next up on the data front is the ADP survey of U.S. private sector
employment, which is forecast to show a rise of 130,000 in November,
according to a Reuters poll.
"We are starting see increasing evidence that the U.S. jobs market is
starting to slow, with vacancies falling to their lowest level since
March 2021 and with the last two ADP reports adding a combined 202k new
jobs as private sector hiring slows," CMC Markets chief market
strategist Michael Hewson said.
"October saw 113,000 jobs added - an improvement on September - and
November is expected to see an improvement on that to 130,000, given
that a lot of additional hiring takes place in the weeks leading up to
Thanksgiving and the Christmas period so we’re unlikely to see any
evidence of cracking in the U.S. labor market this side of 2024," he
said.
RATE-CUT BOUNCE
U.S. stock futures pointed higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq indicated
up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.22%. U.S. 10-year yields were up 2
basis points at 4.195%, having hit their lowest since early September
the day before.
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The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock
exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Staff/File
Photo
The "selloff in yields across the curve is strong evidence of the
intense focus the market has on this week's labor market data," with
the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on
Friday, said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
With markets all but certain the Fed's next move is a cut, dovish
rhetoric from European Central Bank officials and the Reserve Bank
of Australia's decision to hold policy steady on Tuesday have stoked
bets for a peak in rates globally. The Bank of Canada is widely
expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude on Wednesday as well.
That has supported the U.S. currency's rebound from last week's
nearly four-month low, with the U.S. dollar index steady around
104.00 on Wednesday, compared with a trough of 102.46 a week ago.
"The USD weakened when the Federal Reserve looked like they were
cutting while other central banks were holding tight," said James
Kniveton, a senior corporate FX dealer at Convera in Melbourne. "Now
that looks to be changing, and other central banks are following the
Fed's lead."
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.16% to 147.37 and held steady
against the euro at $1.0788.
Bitcoin edged up 0.3% to $44,170, having risen to as much as $44,490
overnight, buoyed by both Fed rate cut expectations and speculation
U.S regulators will soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds.
Gold rose 0.1% to $2,022 an ounce, stabilizing after Monday's surge
to a record $2,135.40.
Crude fell another 1% on Wednesday to five-month lows, against a
backdrop of a worsening demand outlook from China and doubts about
the impact of OPEC cuts.
Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $76.37 a barrel, while U.S. futures
fell by the same amount to $71.53.
(Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by
Jacqueline Wong and Angus MacSwan)
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