Oil heads for 7th weekly loss with supply surplus, weak China demand

[December 08, 2023]  By Paul Carsten

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil benchmarks were headed for a seventh straight weekly decline on worries over a global supply surplus and weak Chinese demand, although prices recovered ground on Friday after Saudi Arabia and Russia called for more OPEC+ members to join output cuts.

Brent crude futures were up $1.93, or 2.6%, at $75.98 a barrel at 0913 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.82, or 2.6%, to $71.16 a barrel. Brent had earlier risen by $2.

Both benchmarks slid to their lowest since late June in the previous session, a sign that many traders believe the market is oversupplied. Brent and WTI are also in contango, a market structure in which front-month prices trade at a discount to prices further out.

OPEC+'s "weakening position in providing support coupled with record high US production and sluggish Chinese crude oil import figures can only mean one thing: there is an abundance of oil available, which is neatly reflected in the contangoed structure of the two pivotal crude oil benchmarks," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM in a note.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's two biggest oil exporters, on Thursday called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on output cuts for the good of the global economy, only days after a fractious meeting of the producers' club.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a combined 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in output cuts for the first quarter of next year.

"Despite OPEC+ members' pledges, we see total production from OPEC+ countries dropping by only 350,000 bpd from December 2023 into January 2024," said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler.

An aerial view shows an oil factory of Idemitsu Kosan Co. in Ichihara, east of Tokyo, Japan November 12, 2021, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Picture taken on November 12, 2021. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS

Some of the OPEC+ countries may not adhere to their commitments due to muddied quota baselines and dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, Katona said.

Brent and WTI crude futures are on track to fall 3.9% and 4% for the week, respectively, their biggest losses in four weeks.

Fuelling the market's downturn, Chinese customs data showed its crude oil imports in November fell 9% from a year earlier as high inventory levels, weak economic indicators and slowing orders from independent refiners weakened demand.

In the United States, output remained near record highs of more than 13 million bpd, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. [EIA/S]

The market is also looking for monetary policy cues from the official U.S. monthly job report due later today, which is expected to show November job growth improving and wages increasing moderately. That would cement views that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates this cycle.

(Reporting by Paul Carsten in London and Stephanie Kelly and Muyu Xu; Editing by Tom Hogue and Mark Potter)

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