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Marketmind: Running the central bank gauntlet

[December 11, 2023] A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The final sweep of major central banks meetings of 2023 this week is unlikely to involve any change of policy rates but may act as a reality check for markets' prevailing rate cut euphoria.

And before we even get to the Federal Reserve's latest decision on Wednesday, there's a lot to digest.

With Friday's surprisingly robust U.S. employment report for November cutting across other softer labor market indicators and still reverberating on Monday, the picture was colored by news of deepening deflation in China and reports of a pushback against recent speculation about imminent Bank of Japan tightening.

The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Banks all meet on Thursday.

In what's proving a difficult moment to parse for global policymakers and investors alike, the Fed meeting will be preceded and likely influenced by the November consumer price inflation report on Tuesday. Consensus sees that ebbing another notch to 3.1%, though annual 'core' may be stuck at 4.0%.

Despite the punchy jobs number, disinflation momentum and inflation expectations continue to impress.

The University of Michigan's latest survey on Friday showed consumers' one-year inflation expectations plunged more than a point to 3.1% in December, the lowest reading since March 2021, and the 5-year view fell back below 3%. The New York Fed survey of consumer inflation expectations is due on Monday.

The upshot has been that markets have taken a pretty benign view overall of the latest sweep of numbers running into the Fed meeting. The labor market dampens recession fears without shifting the disinflation picture unduly.

With some $87 billion of 3- and 10-year U.S. Treasuries up for auction later on Monday too, 10-year yields backed up about 12 basis points to 4.24% after the jobs report on Friday and have held the line there today.

The Fed futures market has sobered up a little too since the employment report, with the chances of quarter-point cut as soon as March slipping back below 50% and two cuts not fully priced now until July. That said, there's still almost 110bps of easing priced through the end of 2024.

But Wall St stocks saw Friday's news as a glass as half full, with both the S&P500 and Nasdaq clocking closing highs for the year - and corporate junk bond spreads tightening to their lowest in three months. The VIX volatility gauge closed at its lowest since the before the pandemic, although it crept back a little higher on Monday.

Stock futures more generally show markets holding those gains before the bell later.

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 7, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

The dollar perked up on the higher Treasury yields - but also spurred against the yen on the BOJ reports and against China's yuan on the weekend data on deflation there. The euro and sterling were actually both a touch higher ahead of the ECB and BOE meetings.

As to the Fed meeting, thinking centres around degrees and nuance as so often. Key may be the publication of policymakers final quarterly economic projections of 2023 - including the so-called 'dot plot' of policy rate views.

Unless the Fed shocks with another hike this week, the median rate projection from September for one more rate rise will likely have proved a bum steer - and will encourage markets betting the Fed's rhetorical caution on inflation will be trumped by reality.

Of more importance, however, will be how it reshapes the 2024 view - where the median view is currently pencilled in at 5.1% - just a quarter point cut from here.

Elsewhere, oil prices held steady as U.S. efforts to replenish strategic reserves provided support, though concerns persist about oversupply and softer fuel demand growth next year.

Argentina's markets will react later to the weekend pledges from newly inaugurated President Javier Milei - who promised a 'shock' to fiscal policy and scrapping of the central bank.

In corporate news, U.S. health insurer Cigna ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price and the company announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares.

And an investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:

* New York Fed's survey of consumer inflation expectations.

* U.S. Nov employment trends

* U.S. Treasury auctions 3- and 10-year notes, 3- and 6-month bills

* U.S. corporate earnings: Oracle, Blue Bird, Inotiv, Caseys General Stores

(By Mike Dolan, Editing by Bernadette Baum; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

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