How abortion could impact the 2024 US elections
Send a link to a friend
[December 14, 2023]
By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision last year to eliminate a
nationwide right to abortion was a moment of triumph for conservatives
who had labored for five decades to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade
ruling.
Nearly two dozen Republican-controlled states have taken advantage of
the ruling to impose new restrictions on abortion, curtailing access to
the procedure for tens of millions of women.
But the ruling has also turned the issue into a political liability for
Republicans. Voter backlash was widely credited with limiting Republican
gains in the 2022 congressional midterm elections, as well as propelling
Democrats to victories last month in Virginia and Kentucky.
Every statewide ballot question about reproductive rights since 2022 -
seven in all - has yielded victory for abortion rights advocates,
including in conservative states such as Ohio, Kansas and Kentucky.
Republican presidential candidates, including frontrunner Donald Trump,
have struggled to articulate a position on abortion that would satisfy
both the evangelical Christians who comprise a critical Republican
voting bloc as well as the swing voters who prefer abortion remain
accessible.
President Joe Biden's re-election campaign and Democratic-aligned groups
intend to put abortion rights at the center of next year's White House
contest.
"It's pretty evident, both with research and the elections we held in
2023, that abortion is a winning issue for us," said Danielle
Butterfield, the executive director of Priorities USA, a leading
Democratic super PAC, or fundraising committee. "We plan to communicate
heavily on the issue heading into 2024."
WHY IT MATTERS
The 2022 Supreme Court decision has deepened the cultural divide between
conservative and liberal states.
Many states under Democratic control, such as New York, California and
Maryland, have enacted additional protections for reproductive rights
since the ruling, while Republican-dominated states - including most of
the South - have banned or limited abortion.
The number of patients traveling to other states to get an abortion has
doubled since 2020, reaching nearly one in five, according to research
published in December by the pro-reproductive rights Guttmacher
Institute.
The restrictions have also accelerated the use of medication abortions,
which now account for more than half of all procedures, according to
Guttmacher.
In August, the conservative 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals barred
telemedicine prescriptions and mail shipments of mifepristone, a pill
used to perform medication abortions.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court agreed to review that ruling at the
request of the Biden administration, one of many legal battles at the
state and national level that will continue in 2024.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2024
Abortion is bedeviling the Republican presidential candidates.
Trump has taken credit for appointing three right-wing justices to the
Supreme Court, securing the majority needed to overturn Roe in the first
place. But he has also avoided saying whether he would sign a national
ban into law.
[to top of second column]
|
A voter fills out their ballot as voters in Ohio decide whether to
enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution, in
Columbus, Ohio, U.S. November 7, 2023. REUTERS/Megan Jelinger/File
Photo
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trailing far behind Trump in the race
for the Republican presidential nomination, signed a six-week ban in
his home state and has said he would support a 15-week national
limit.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, has
urged Republicans to focus on finding consensus, rather than
faulting those who favor abortion rights.
Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations
for the national group Reproductive Freedom for All, said
Republicans simply cannot win on the subject.
"They think this is a messaging issue, where this is actually a
policy issue," he said.
Reproductive rights advocates - bolstered by Ohio's November vote to
protect abortion rights - are gathering signatures for similar
ballot measures in 2024 in several states. The list includes
presidential battlegrounds such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida.
Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee,
said anti-abortion groups have to improve fundraising efforts to
counter the money pouring into those statewide campaigns.
"It's easy to look at '23 - '24 as this small, narrow window," she
said. "But the movement has been here for 50 years. Yes, we lost
some battles in the last election cycle, but that doesn't mean we're
just going to walk away."
Some 70% of Americans said protecting abortion access in their state
would be an important issue in determining their vote in November,
including around two-thirds of independent voters, according to a
Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Dec. 5-11. About half of Americans said
they would support a law legalizing abortion nationwide, including
close to one-third of Republicans.
However, with 11 months until the election, it is too early to say
where abortion will ultimately rank among voters' top issues.
Butterfield, of Priorities USA, said the group's research found that
abortion remains a top concern for swing voters. The group plans a
$75 million digital ad campaign next year that will emphasize
abortion as a central issue.
But Gunner Ramer, the political director for the anti-Trump
Republican Accountability Project, said its focus groups with swing
voters revealed that economic worries outweigh all others.
"Abortion mattered in 2023, but I think as concerns over the economy
continue looming over this presidential cycle, that will be the most
important issue," he said.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Rosalba
O'Brien)
[© 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]This material
may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |