Where is democracy headed in 2024? Trump may have the final word
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[December 18, 2023]
By Mark Bendeich
(Reuters) - Russia's Vladimir Putin looks set to remain in power until
at least 2030; India's Narendra Modi seems certain to extend his rule to
2029; and Donald Trump could return to the White House despite charges
of subverting U.S. democracy.
For those who worry that authoritarian rulers are firmly in the
ascendant over more liberal democrats, there is likely to be much to
fret about in 2024.
In all, the governance of more than a quarter of the world's population
will be at stake in elections next year, including Taiwan next month,
Russia in March, India by May and the United States in November.
Britain is also likely to elect a new parliament by the end of 2024,
though that vote could slip into January 2025.
But no contest could have a bigger impact on the debate over the future
of democracy than the U.S. presidential election.
WHY IT MATTERS
Trump, who never conceded defeat in the 2020 U.S. election and falsely
claimed the vote was rigged, has vowed retribution on opponents if
returned to power, including the Department of Justice, the federal
bureaucracy and President Joe Biden.
That has fanned fears that political hostilities in the United States
could turn white hot and cause civil unrest.
Trump has a slight lead in opinion polls even as he defends multiple
criminal charges against him.
Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 13, and
the outcome could shape how Chinese President Xi Jinping pursues his
goal of taking control of what Beijing considers "sacred" Chinese
territory.
China detests the front-running presidential candidate, the Democratic
Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te, believing him to be a separatist. U.S.
military officers have said Xi has ordered the Chinese military to be
prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.
In Russia, Putin's re-election as president seems assured after years of
cracking down on political opposition. That means Russia's war on
Ukraine also looks set to continue, testing the patience of Kyiv's main
ally, the United States. Trump has been critical of the high level of
U.S. military support for Ukraine.
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Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald
Trump speaks at a rally in Durham, New Hampshire, U.S. December 16,
2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/FILE PHOTO
In India, Modi, another self-styled strongman, is sailing towards
re-election as prime minister, having nurtured an uncompromising
leadership style that plays well to many voters and foreign
investors but riles human rights groups.
If Modi's Hindu nationalist party wins, the economy rather than
rights is expected to remain his main focus.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2024
In the debate over whether liberal democracy is losing to
authoritarianism and autocracy, Africa also has a voice.
Coups in Niger and Gabon this year have extended the retreat of
democracy in West and Central Africa, where there have been eight
coups since 2020. But further south, a big and lively political
contest is in prospect for 2024.
After three decades of government marred by graft and economic
decline, South Africa's African National Congress risks losing its
parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led
it to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid.
If so, the ANC may need a coalition partner to stay in power --
likely either the Democratic Alliance, popular with white voters, or
the Economic Freedom Fighters, a Marxist party favoured by poor
black voters. Either way, South African democracy will have turned a
corner.
The election is due sometime between May and August.
Overall, will democracy take a backward step in 2024?
U.S.-based pro-democracy lobby Freedom House, which uses political
rights and civil liberties as a measure of democracy, says it has
been in decline for 17 years. But in its latest report card, it
suggested democracy was making a comeback.
Thirty-four nations made improvements in 2022 and the tally of
countries with declines, at 35, was the smallest recorded since the
negative pattern began, it said in the report in March.
(Editing by Timothy Heritage)
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