China balloon soaring over U.S. deflates hopes for diplomatic thaw
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[February 04, 2023]
By Michael Martina, Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The political uproar over a suspected Chinese spy
balloon drifting over the United States did not just derail a planned
visit to Beijing by the top U.S. diplomat, it also threatens to upset
attempts by both countries to steady an increasingly rocky relationship.
The reaction in the United States to what appears to be an ill-timed
spying mission will have lingering consequences for efforts to stabilize
ties – already near historic lows. Some U.S. lawmakers are demanding
that President Joe Biden, a Democrat, hold China to account for what
officials are calling an unacceptable violation of U.S. sovereignty.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who postponed a trip that was to
begin on Friday, said he would be prepared to visit Beijing "when
conditions allow," but the administration could be hard pressed to
quickly revive the trip short of China offering up serious gestures of
goodwill, policy analysts said.
Daniel Russel, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia under then-President
Barack Obama, said China's "laughable alibi" that the aircraft was an
errant weather balloon, didn't help.
"This incident has soured the atmosphere and hardened positions and
there's no guarantee the two sides can successfully resurrect the 'Bali'
momentum," Russel said, referring to the November meeting between Biden
and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Indonesia where they agreed to increase
communications.
Ties between the superpowers have frayed over the past few years and
sank to their worst in decades last August, when then U.S. House of
Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, prompting Beijing
to conduct military drills near the Chinese-claimed island.
Since then, the Biden administration has said it hopes to build a
"floor" for the relationship and ensure that rivalry does not spiral
into conflict.
But Republicans who control the House are already working on ways to
investigate potential threats from the United States' top geopolitical
rival and have been quick to put heat on Biden about the balloon,
questioning how it was allowed into U.S. airspace.
CALLS TO SHOOT DOWN BALLOON
Michael McCaul, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs
Committee, on Friday demanded to know why the administration had not
shot the balloon down, accusing the president of allowing it to pose "a
direct and ongoing national security threat to the U.S. homeland."
China has often complained about surveillance of its growing military by
U.S. ships and aircraft, though such operations in recent years have
been conducted from widely recognized international waters and airspace.
The mood in China over the balloon was also glum. The government
expressed regret that an "airship" used for civilian meteorological and
other scientific purposes had strayed. Some Chinese domestic
commentators were scathing, however, about the U.S. response.
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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
speaks as he attends the signing ceremony of a memorandum of
understanding and joint news conference with South Korean Foreign
Minister Park Jin, at the State Department in Washington, U.S.
February 3, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
"If Blinken were to cancel his trip to Beijing because of the
balloon, I'd see it as him using that as an excuse to do what he had
wanted to do anyway - not visit China," said Zhu Feng, executive
dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University,
speaking before the State Department announced the trip's
cancellation.
Had Blinken gone ahead with the visit, it likely would have opened
the administration to more strident criticism that its approach
toward was China weak and poor optics in Congress where there is
bipartisan support for a hard line on Beijing, some analysts said.
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Expectations for Blinken's trip had been low, but he had intended to
raise by name the cases of American citizens the United States says
are wrongfully detained in China, and push Beijing to cooperate on
stemming the flow of fentanyl, both areas where any progress would
have built momentum that could carry into other discussions.
Ivan Kanapathy, a former White House National Security Council
deputy senior director for Asia, said he anticipated a string of
hearings in Congress about China that would make it difficult for
Blinken to justify a trip to Beijing unless he can win the release
of detained Americans or return with another major prize.
China, too, wants a stable U.S. relationship so it can focus on its
economy, battered by the now abandoned zero-COVID policy.
Blinken's visit - what would have been the first by a secretary of
state to China since 2018 - was seen largely as an effort to develop
ways to navigate future crises. With a trip to Taiwan by new House
Speaker Kevin McCarthy likely this year, the next crisis might not
be far off.
"Overall, I do think the Biden administration would like to
reschedule, as there are many issues on the table and a real chance
for a thaw. But the balloon incident probably means the thaw is
postponed indefinitely," said RAND Corporation Indo-Pacific analyst
Derek Grossman.
But Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution, said on
Twitter that China's balloon operation had at least given the United
States and China a chance to work out rules of engagement in space
and at high altitudes, where the two countries' militaries will come
into increasingly close contact.
"We should not squander this opportunity to materially reduce risk
and also prevent future violations of U.S. airspace by PRC spy
balloons," Hass said.
(Reporting by Michael Martina, Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom;
Editing by Don Durfee and Grant McCool)
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