Republicans cool on Trump 2024 bid, Democrats even cooler on Biden,
Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
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[February 15, 2023]
By Joseph Ax and Jason Lange
(Reuters) - Democratic U.S. voters express less support for President
Joe Biden running for a second term 2024 than Republicans do for former
President Donald Trump's latest White House bid, a Reuters/Ipsos poll
shows, a potentially worrisome sign for Biden as he prepares to announce
his re-election campaign.
Fifty-two percent of registered Democrats said Biden should not seek a
second term, compared to 40% of Republicans who said Trump should not
run again, according to the national poll, which gathered responses from
4,408 adults from Feb. 6-13.
Taken together, the results signal that many Americans are far from
enthused about a rematch of the divisive November 2020 contest won by
Biden. Trump made false claims that the election was stolen from him
through widespread voting fraud, and his supporters attacked the U.S.
Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, seeking to stop Congress from certifying
Biden's election victory.
Spokespeople for Biden and Trump did not immediately respond to requests
for comment.
"I think it shows Biden's support level is pretty soft," said Kyle
Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for
Politics. "But you need a real candidate to turn that generic feeling
into a specific problem for Biden, and nobody seems to be stepping up to
the plate to push Biden."
Biden, who has yet to announce his candidacy, is expected to stand
unopposed in Democratic presidential primaries after he was credited
with helping the party do better than expected in the November midterm
congressional elections. Democrats lost control of the House of
Representatives but retained a Senate majority.
Democratic strategists expressed confidence that the party's voters
would enthusiastically support Biden once he announces his run.
Jennifer Holdsworth, who worked on current Transportation Secretary Pete
Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, said the survey results reflect
what she called a media-driven but inaccurate narrative that Biden, 80,
is too old to serve in the White House.
"I think it's entirely overblown," Holdsworth said. "Most rank-and-file
Democrats that I talk to are thrilled with the record this
administration has accomplished."
Biden has shrugged off polling showing voter concerns about his age,
asking one interviewer last week, "Look, do you know any polling that's
accurate these days?"
Biden and Trump each led their party's field of potential candidates in
the poll, but neither drew support from a majority of their voters.
Biden was the pick for 35% of Democrats and Trump for 43% of
Republicans.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has built a national profile with a
relentless focus on issues such as race and gender identity, was a clear
No. 2 with 31% of registered Republicans backing him, just 12 percentage
points behind Trump.
A host of other possible Republican contenders, including former Vice
President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley,
received single-digit support. Besides Trump, Haley, who launched her
2024 campaign on Tuesday, is the only major Republican candidate to
announce a bid.
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump
reacts during a campaign stop to unveil his leadership team, at the
South Carolina State House in Columbia, South Carolina, U.S.,
January 28, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
On the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders drew 13% support,
Vice President Kamala Harris 12% and Buttigieg 10%.
The poll numbers are a good sign for DeSantis given that he has
never mounted a national campaign, Republican strategist Chuck
Coughlin said.
"If I'm Ron DeSantis, I'm pretty encouraged that I'm within striking
position and have that kind of name ID," Coughlin said.
TRUMP'S 'MOMENTUM PROBLEM'
Trump has plenty of vulnerabilities. He faces a slew of civil and
criminal investigations and saw many of his hand-picked candidates
lose competitive races in the midterm elections.
"Trump's got a momentum problem," Coughlin said. "After the '22
cycle, I think it's dawning on more and more Republicans that his
time has come and gone."
That said, Trump prevailed in a crowded primary field in 2016 by
winning a plurality, rather than a majority, of Republican votes in
early states, a dynamic that could repeat itself in 2024 if more
candidates enter the race.
Either Trump or DeSantis would pose a threat to Biden's re-election
chances, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed. In a hypothetical one-on-one
contest, Trump earned 42% among registered voters, compared with 39%
for Biden, a statistical tie because it was within the poll's
credibility interval of four points in either direction for the
question on head-to-head match ups.
DeSantis also was neck-and-neck with Biden in a hypothetical
two-person contest, 41% to 38%.
Despite low unemployment and rising consumer sentiment, the U.S.
economy remains a drag on Biden's popularity. Only 36% of registered
voters in the new Reuters/Ipsos poll said they approve of Biden's
handling of the economy, down from 42% a year earlier.
"There seems to be a disconnect between how the economy is
performing and how people are feeling around the kitchen table,"
said Holdsworth, the Democratic strategist.
Biden is also weighed down by perceptions that he is too old to run.
He is already the oldest president to serve, and 51% of Democrats in
the poll said he cannot handle the physical toll of the presidency.
By comparison, only a quarter of registered Republicans said Trump,
76, who was hospitalized with COVID-19 during his presidency, was
not fit for the physical demands of the office.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax and Jason Lange; editing by Ross Colvin and
Will Dunham)
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