Analysis-Putin's nuclear treaty move raises stakes over China's growing
arsenal
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[February 22, 2023]
By Greg Torode and Martin Quin Pollard
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Russia's suspension of its last remaining nuclear
weapons treaty with the United States may have dashed any hopes of
dragging China to the table to start talking about its own rapidly
accelerating nuclear arms programmes.
Regional diplomats and security analysts had held out the prospect of
China somehow being convinced to join Russian-U.S. arms talks over
extending the New START treaty ahead of its expiry in 2026 as way of
easing growing fears over its rapid military modernisation.
China's nuclear arsenal sits at the core of those concerns as it grows
in size and sophistication - an expansion that the Pentagon recently
noted is now gathering pace.
"Compared to traditional Russian-U.S. exchanges, China is a black box -
but one getting bigger every year," one Asian security diplomat said on
Wednesday.
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"Putin's suspension may have set us further back in terms of getting
China to step up to the transparency table. There is so much we need to
know about its policies and intentions."
In a speech ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia was
suspending a treaty signed in 2010 that caps at 1,550 the number of
strategic nuclear warheads the United States and Russia can each deploy
while providing for mutual inspections.
Security analysts said the move could imperil the delicate calculus that
underpins mutual deterrence between the two countries, long the largest
nuclear powers by far, and spark an arms race among other nuclear armed
states.
Tong Zhao, a U.S.-based nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, said he believed Putin's move limits the prospects
of U.S.-China nuclear co-operation.
"This is only going to make China even less interested in pursuing
co-operative nuclear security with the United States," Zhao told
Reuters.
"Now even this last example of arms control co-operation is being
seriously undermined."
NO FIRST USE
A nuclear power since the early 1960s, China for decades maintained a
small number of nuclear warheads and missiles as a deterrent under its
unique "no first use" pledge.
That pledge remains official policy but the arsenal that surrounds it
has grown rapidly in recent years as part of Beijing's broader military
modernization under President Xi Jinping.
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The People's Liberation Army now has the ability to launch long-range
nuclear armed missiles from submarines, aircraft and an expanding range
of silos in the country's interior - a "nuclear triad" that some experts
fear could be used, for example, to coerce rivals in a conflict over
Taiwan.
The Pentagon's annual China report released last November noted that
Beijing appeared to accelerate its expansion in 2021 and now has more
than 400 warheads stockpiled.
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![](../images/022223PIX/news_r7.jpg)
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks
with Chinese President Xi Jinping before an extended-format meeting
of heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit (SCO)
member states in Samarkand, Uzbekistan September 16, 2022.
Sputnik/Sergey Bobylev/Pool via REUTERS
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Feb/22/images/ads/current/heartland_lda_020123.png)
By 2035 - when the ruling Communist Party's leadership wants its
military to be fully modernised - it will likely field 1,500 nuclear
warheads and an advanced array of missiles, the Pentagon says.
The Pentagon also warns of possible conditions over "no first use"
as the build-up continues - questions that echo many raised by
regional military attaches and security scholars.
"Beijing probably would also consider nuclear use to restore
deterrence if a conventional military defeat gravely threatened PRC
survival," the Pentagon report notes.
A month earlier, Washington's Nuclear Posture Review said Beijing
had been reluctant to engage in strategic nuclear discussions but
that both bilateral and multilateral talks were needed.
"The scope and pace of the PRC's nuclear expansion, as well as its
lack of transparency and growing military assertiveness, raise
questions regarding its intentions, nuclear strategy and doctrine,
and perceptions of strategic stability," it said.
Some experts believe Beijing has long been wary of being bound by
any three-way talks with Russia and the U.S. given how far it
remains behind U.S. capabilities.
FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE
Academics familiar with once-regular unofficial and semi-official
exchanges - so-called Track 2 and Track 1.5 discussions - with
Chinese counterparts over nuclear policy have also dried up in the
last five years or so amid wider political tensions.
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Singapore-based strategic adviser Alexander Neill said he believed
China might increasingly support Russia's position rhetorically,
while feeling emboldened to further accelerate its own build-up.
That would make it harder for the United States and its allies to
engage Beijing on its nuclear doctrine, particularly on "no first
use".
"China has been consistent in supporting arms control between the
U.S. and Russia and has long wanted to maintain the image of being a
responsible stakeholder - but there are growing questions about the
future," said Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii's Pacific Forum
think-tank.
"The aim of the U.S. and its allies is to get crystal clarity over
its 'no first use' policy because there's the Taiwan question," he
said.
Carnegie's Zhao said that Putin's announcement may increase the risk
of inciting other nuclear powers to expand their nuclear arsenals
and break long-held commitments not to stage fresh tests.
"If that happens, it is a very negative development in terms of
international ... nuclear order."
(Reporting By Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Martin Quin Pollard in
Beijing; Editing by Nick Macfie)
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