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The
Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) distributive trades
index rose to +2 this month from -23 in January. A Reuters poll
of economists had pointed to a reading of -13.
But a measure of expected sales in the month ahead fell to -18
from -15.
"Whilst retail sales volumes were largely unchanged in the year
to February and slightly above seasonal norms, firms remain
pessimistic about their business outlook and are bracing
themselves for yet another fall in sales next month," Martin
Sartorius, CBI principal economist, said.
Official data published last week showed shoppers spent more
than expected in January but inflation-hit households were
buying fewer items and relying more on discounts.
Gabriella Dickens, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said
the recovery in the CBI's sales measure this month would "likely
prove a false dawn" as households are expected to spend less in
the coming months as the risk of a recession looms.
The CBI said its survey showed retailers were gloomy about their
prospects for the coming three months amid "acute" price
pressures.
Its average selling price balance fell two percentage points to
a still historically high +80 in the three months to February
from +82 in the three months to the end of November.
The Bank of England has signalled that it believes the tide is
turning on Britain's inflation.
Consumer price inflation eased to 10.1% last month after hitting
a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists polled by Reuters
this month expected inflation to average 7.0% this year, and
2.6% in 2024.
The CBI's survey of 59 retail chains took place between Jan. 27
and Feb. 14.
(Reporting by Suban AbdullaEditing by William Schomberg)
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