Analysis-China's role as Ukraine peacemaker raises doubt as it 'deepens'
Russia ties
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[February 23, 2023]
By Martin Quin Pollard
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's effort to cast itself as a peacemaker on
Ukraine reflects an aim to burnish its image rather than a change of
stance, Western diplomats and analysts said, as it seeks to establish
itself as a leader of a new multipolar world order.
A year after Russia invaded its southwestern neighbour, its "no limits"
partner China is offering to broker peace. It says it will issue a
"position paper" on Ukraine and President Xi Jinping is expected to give
a "peace speech" this week, Italy's foreign minister said.
But analysts say China's affirmation of its "rock solid" relationship
with Russia and the backing of Russia's line on the war undermines its
posture of neutrality, as does a U.S. assertion that China was
considering providing weapons to Russia, which China denies.
Beijing's peace overture suggests an attempt to repair ties with some
Western countries, particularly in Europe, rather than a major policy
shift, European diplomats said, while staking out the rhetorical high
ground is an effort to challenge the U.S.-led world order.
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It is also likely aimed at building a narrative at home of Xi as a
global problem-solver as he begins his third leadership term and China
looks to revive an economy battered by three years of COVID-19 curbs.
"At the moment China’s peace effort will stay at the rhetorical level,"
said Li Mingjiang, associate professor of international relations at
Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
"It's difficult to imagine China taking actual action to mediate between
Russia and Ukraine any time soon ... this is China’s small posture
change, not any substantive policy adjustment on the war," he said.
To be sure, any serious move by China to resolve Europe's bloodiest land
war since World War Two would be widely welcomed, but many diplomats and
China-watchers say that when push comes to shove, China will stick by
Russia.
That scepticism was reinforced by a pledge by top Chinese diplomat Wang
Yi on Wednesday in Moscow that China wished to "deepen" ties, and
Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that Xi would soon visit
Moscow.
Since the war began weeks after Beijing and Moscow announced a "no
limits" partnership, Xi has spoken regularly with Putin but not once
with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
In 2022, China's imports of Russian commodities jumped while trade with
Ukraine withered.
Still, China is unlikely to provide Russia with military aid any time
soon, at least not overtly, experts and diplomats said.
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![](../images/022323PIX/news_t12.jpg)
Russia's President Vladimir Putin shakes
hands with China's Director of the Office of the Central Foreign
Affairs Commission Wang Yi during a meeting in Moscow, Russia
February 22, 2023. Sputnik/Anton Novoderezhkin/Pool via REUTERS
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"If Western military support to Ukraine increases the likelihood of
Russia's defeat, then the international community should expect
stronger efforts from China to prevent that outcome," said Tong Zhao
a U.S.-based nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
"China's calculations are influenced by America's effort to draw a
brighter red line for China," Zhao said, referring to a U.S. warning
on weapons. "Beijing is seeking to strike a balance between
stabilizing its relations with Washington and preventing Moscow's
defeat."
'INDIVISIBLE SECURITY'
China's diplomatic flurry included the release on Tuesday of a paper
on the Global Security Initiative, Xi's flagship security proposal
that aims to uphold the principle of "indivisible security", a
concept endorsed by Russia under which no country can strengthen its
security at the expense of others.
Experts and several Western diplomats said the initiative looked
like a further effort by China to position itself as a peace-seeking
nation while establishing an alternative global framework to the one
dominated by the United States.
"The biggest contribution China could make would be to remove its
support for Russia, ask Russia to withdraw its troops, get out of
Ukraine and for China to support Ukraine financially," said a
European diplomat, declining to be identified because he is not
permitted to speak to media.
"But that’s not realistic now."
While China supports peace in principle, analysts and diplomats say
it does not want an end to the Ukraine war that endangers Putin or
his regime, given the risk of instability in a country with which it
shares a more than 4,000 km border.
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"For Beijing, the key question isn’t whether the war should end;
it’s how it should end," said Benjamin Herscovitch, research fellow
at Australian National University.
"China still sees Russia as a central element of its overarching
strategy to weaken U.S. power and influence and build a multipolar
world," he said.
(Reporting by Martin Quin Pollard; Additional reporting by Laurie
Chen and the Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Tony Munroe, Robert Birsel)
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