Canada has firepower to invest billions in green transition, analysts
say
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[February 24, 2023]
By Steve Scherer
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada has the firepower to invest billions of
dollars in the green transition over the coming years to make it more
competitive with the United States, analysts said, while also ensuring
its public finances stay on a sustainable path.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has fiscal room in this year's budget
because tax revenue has held up, COVID-19 pandemic supports have ended
and the economy is performing better than previously expected, said
Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins.
"When I look at the long-term trend in the debt-to-GDP ratio, it's
trending down," Bartlett said. Because nominal growth is forecast to be
weak in the 2023/24 fiscal year, the ratio might creep up before heading
downward again. Bartlett called it "just a blip on the path."
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has targeted a declining net
debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio each year to assure financial
markets that the government has spending under control.
Freeland, who is due to present the budget in March or April, has said
she will take a "fiscally prudent" approach that will not hamper the
central bank's fight against inflation, which was almost three times its
2% target in January.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2019/Sep/05/images/ads/current/stclara_lda_SPONSOR_090519.png)
But she has also promised investments in response to the U.S. Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA), which contains $369 billion in incentives for
consumers and businesses to make the low-carbon transition there. She
said these investments will encourage people to build the clean economy
in Canada.
Many in industry say Canada must do more to be a key player in the green
transition as the IRA is already spurring investment in the United
States. But borrowing costs are rising and the economy could tip into
recession this year, reducing tax revenues, so caution is warranted.
"At this point in the economic cycle, you're better off saving if the
spending isn't needed," said Rebekah Young, head of resilience economics
at Scotiabank.
In the fall, Freeland forecast a gradually declining deficit and a
balanced budget by 2027/28.
William Foster, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's
Investors Service, said Canada has committed to getting deficits "back
on track" after the massive pandemic spending. Moody's has a 'Aaa'
rating - the highest - on Canada's sovereign bonds, with a stable
outlook.
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![](../images/022423PIX/news_h71.jpg)
Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, with Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau, takes part in a news conference after touring a medical
training facility in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 7, 2023.
REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Feb/24/images/ads/current/ldn_lda_BUSINESSDIRECTORY_PROMO_2023.png)
"We decided to affirm the triple A rating and maintain a stable
outlook... because our expectation is the government will be will be
committed to staying on a fiscally responsible track," Foster said.
HOW MUCH FISCAL ROOM IS THERE?
Bartlett estimates Canada could spend an additional C$20 billion
($14.9 billion) per year and keep the net debt-to-GDP ratio below
2021/22's 45.5%, which was the lowest in the G7.
Promised investments in the green transition will not "be overly
inflationary" and they would provide certainty for investors and
businesses, Bartlett said.
Young at Scotiabank said she expects debt-to-GDP to stay level with
an additional "very ballpark" C$15 billion in expenditure.
"They'll build themselves a buffer," Young said, because future
economic shocks could undermine growth and therefore make it more
difficult to lower the ratio.
If that buffer were half of Bartlett and Young's estimates, it would
allow an additional C$7.5 billion to C$10 billion in annual
expenditure.
Freeland's office declined to comment on its potential spending in
the budget.
These estimates take into account the C$46.2 billion ($34.64
billion) in new healthcare spending over the next decade announced
earlier this month.
Canada has only one chance to attract investment in the electric
vehicle supply chain, said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive
Parts Manufacturers’ Association.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Feb/24/images/ads/current/firststatemortgage_sda_020223.png)
"Every single automaker in North America, and there's about 15 of
them of consequence, has to electrify" by the 2030s, he said. "All
of them will need to buy batteries at scale from facilities that
don't exist currently."
($1 = 1.3427 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Josie Kao)
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