China COVID peak to last 2-3 months, hit rural areas next -expert
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[January 13, 2023]
By Bernard Orr and Ellen Zhang
BEIJING (Reuters) -The peak of China's COVID-19 wave is expected to last
two to three months, and will soon swell over the vast countryside where
medical resources are relatively scarce, a top Chinese epidemiologist
has said.
Infections are expected to surge in rural areas as hundreds of millions
travel to their home towns for the Lunar New Year holidays, which
officially start from Jan. 21, known before the pandemic as the world's
largest annual migration of people.
China last month abruptly abandoned the strict anti-virus regime of mass
lockdowns that fuelled historic protests across the country in late
November, and finally reopened its borders this past Sunday.
The abrupt dismantling of restrictions has unleashed the virus onto
China's 1.4 billion people, more than a third of whom live in regions
where infections are already past their peak, according to state media.
But the worst of the outbreak was not yet over, warned Zeng Guang, the
former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control
and Prevention, according to a report published in local media outlet
Caixin on Thursday.
"Our priority focus has been on the large cities. It is time to focus on
rural areas," Zeng was quoted as saying.
He said a large number of people in the countryside, where medical
facilities are relatively poor, are being left behind, including the
elderly, the sick and the disabled.
The World Health Organization this week also warned of the risks
stemming from holiday travelling.
The UN agency said China was heavily under-reporting deaths from COVID,
although it is now providing more information on its outbreak.
"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has shared relevant
information and data with the international community in an open,
transparent and responsible manner," foreign ministry official Wu Xi
told reporters.
Chinese virologists said on Friday they have discovered one infection
with the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, which has been described by WHO
scientists as the most transmissible sub-variant so far after its rapid
spread in the United States in December. There is no evidence yet that
it is more severe.
Health authorities have been reporting five or fewer deaths a day over
the past month, numbers which are inconsistent with the long queues seen
at funeral homes and the body bags seen coming out of crowded hospitals.
China has not reported COVID fatalities data since Monday. Officials
said in December they planned monthly, rather than daily updates, going
forward.
Although international health experts have predicted at least 1 million
COVID-related deaths this year, China has reported just over 5,000 since
the pandemic began, one of the lowest death rates in the world.
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A worker in a protective suit walks near
a plane of Air China airlines at Beijing Capital International
Airport as coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks continue in
Beijing, China January 6, 2023. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS
Concerns over data transparency were among the factors that prompted
more than a dozen countries to demand pre-departure COVID tests from
travellers arriving from China.
Beijing, which had shut its borders from the rest of the world for
three years and still demands all visitors get tested before their
trip, objects to the curbs.
Wu said accusations by individual countries were "unreasonable,
unscientific and unfounded."
Tensions escalated this week with South Korea and Japan, with China
retaliating by suspending short-term visas for their nationals. The
two countries also limit flights, test travellers from China on
arrival, and quarantine the positive ones.
Parts of China were returning to normal life.
In the bigger cities in particular, residents are increasingly on
the move, pointing to a gradual, though so far slow, rebound in
consumption and economic activity.
An immigration official said on Friday 490,000 daily trips on
average were made in and out of China since it reopened on Jan. 8,
only 26% of the pre-pandemic levels.
Singapore-based Chu Wenhong was among those who finally got reunited
with their parents for the first time in three years.
"They both got COVID, and are quite old. I feel quite lucky
actually, as it wasn’t too serious for them, but their health is not
very good," she said.
CAUTION
While China's reopening has given a boost to financial assets
globally, policymakers around the world worry it may revive
inflationary pressures.
However, December's trade data released on Friday provided reasons
to be cautious about China's recovery pace.
Jin Chaofeng, whose company exports outdoor rattan furniture, said
he has no expansion or hiring plans for 2023.
"With the lifting of COVID curbs, domestic demand is expected to
improve but not exports," he said.
Data next week is expected to show China's economy grew 2.8% in
2022, its second-slowest since 1976, the final year of Mao Zedong's
decade-long Cultural Revolution, according to a Reuters poll.
Some analysts say last year's lockdowns will leave permanent scars
on China, including by worsening its already bleak demographic
outlook.
Growth is then seen rebounding to 4.9% this year, still well below
the pre-pandemic trend.
(Additional reporting by the Beijing and Shanghai newsrooms; Writing
by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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