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Approximately 53% of those polled by the National Association of
Business Economics (NABE) said they had a more than-even
expectation the United States would enter a recession over the
next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was
already in one.
In the NABE's previous poll released in October, 64% of
respondents indicated that the U.S. economy was either already
in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering
one in the next 12 months.
A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or
industry trade associations responded to the latest survey,
which was conducted from Jan. 4-11.
The poll also showed respondents expected inflation to ease
within their companies and industries, with a forward-looking
gauge for prices charged falling by 10 percentage points since
the last survey to the lowest reading since October 2020.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a
quarter of a percentage point at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy
meeting as it nears a stopping point in its hiking cycle now
that high inflation is on the wane.
The U.S. central bank raised rates last year at the fastest pace
since the early 1980s in a bid to quell inflation that was
running at 40-year highs. Inflation, based on the Fed's
preferred measure, is still nearly three times the central
bank's 2% target.
Recent economic data has shown inflation continuing to ebb and
consumer and producer prices, profits, and wages all growing
more slowly, raising hopes that inflation can be brought to heel
without causing a recession.
(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)
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