Analysis-Southern Africa calls the tune as great power suitors queue up
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[January 26, 2023]
By Tim Cocks and Carien Du Plessis
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa and its neighbours were at the
centre of a tussle for influence this week when top Russian and U.S.
officials visited, offering a rare moment of leverage for governments on
a continent more used to being buffeted by events than wooed.
With a war in Europe pitting invading Russian forces against Ukraine's
army supplied with Western arms, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were both on the hunt for
broader international support.
For the countries of southern Africa, which maintain strong ideological
and historical sympathies for Russia but hold far more significant trade
balances with the European Union and United States, that rivalry
presents an opportunity.
"They have the opportunity to play one side off against the other to get
concessions; to get more aid, more trade," said Steven Gruzd from the
South African Institute of International Affairs. "That's precisely what
we're seeing at the moment."
The war in Ukraine has intensified long-standing great power competition
for access to Africa's abundant natural resources and the diplomatic
prize of its 54 U.N. votes.
But Africa's voting patterns at the United Nations show a continent
divided over which side to support in Ukraine's war.
Landlocked between South Africa and Mozambique and with a gross domestic
product of less than $5 billion, the tiny kingdom of Eswatini doesn't
often command the attention of world powers. No Russian diplomat is
based there.
Nevertheless Lavrov made a stopover after visiting South Africa, which
his counterpart Thulisile Dladla described as a "profound honour." The
two sides signed a visa waver agreement.
Eswatini relies on the United States for aid, but its absolute monarchy
has suffered U.S. criticism on human rights.
'MULTIPOLAR'
For South Africa, the continent's economic powerhouse and diplomatic
heavyweight, it was an opportunity to thumb its nose at a Western
alliance it regards as too bossy and hegemonic.
Receiving Lavrov in Pretoria, his counterpart Naledi Pandor defended
joint military drills planned with Russia and China as a "natural course
of relations" between "friends", and suggested South Africa no longer
believed that Russia ought to withdraw from Ukraine, unless a peace deal
is agreed.
South Africa, alongside Russia and China, is pushing for a "multipolar"
world in which geopolitical power is less concentrated around the United
States. For that reason, it is an enthusiastic exponent of a proposed
political and trade alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China and
itself (BRICS) -- for which it is holding a summit later this year.
"A more inclusive multipolar world. This is the vision of the BRICS
family and what we all subscribe to," Anil Sooklal, South Africa's
official in charge of BRICS, told Reuters.
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South Africa's Foreign Minister Naledi
Pandor and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speak ahead of a
bilateral meeting, in Pretoria, South Africa, January 23, 2023.
REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo
But South Africa's exports to Russia were $587 million in 2020,
while its exports to the United States in the same year were $10.2
billion, data from The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC)
shows.
"South Africa takes BRICS very seriously, but reality is BRICS has
(offered it) very little," said Tom Lodge, Professor of Peace and
Conflict Studies at the University of Limerick. "It hasn't delivered
the kind of benefits South Africa was hoping to get."
Russia-ally China, a major trade partner, has been more interested
in basics like wine and wool than the high-tech value -added
products South Africa wants to sell, Lodge said, adding, "the United
States provides better trading opportunities."
Yet despite South Africa's refusal to vote against Russia at the
U.N. and its rejection of NATO's stance on Ukraine, Yellen met South
African officials and on Thursday will visit mining sites that stand
to lose jobs from the transition to green energy of which the United
States is a major funder.
'TOO IMPORTANT'
While Angola's ageing political class still remembers Russia's
support for its then-Marxist People's Movement for the Liberation of
Angola (MPLA) in its 27-year civil war against Washington-backed
rebels, there has been a marked shift towards the West since
President João Lourenço took over in 2017.
"Angola is one of a few African countries to condemn Russia's
actions – apparently under pressure from the EU," said South African
political risk analyst Marisa Lourenco, noting "a strong pivot
towards the U.S. and away from Russia."
Angola is also seeking to deepen ties with Germany, France and its
former colonial ruler Portugal, she said. Lourenço even suggested in
an interview with Voice of America in December that he would like to
ditch Russian military assistance in favour of the U.S. military
equipment programme.
That didn't stop Lavrov making courtesy call to Luanda on Wednesday,
where he offered to double university scholarships to Angolan
students to 300 next year in an exercise of Russian soft power.
Russia's Alrosa, the world's largest diamond producer, has a 41%
stake in a massive Angolan mine.
"The Russians do want to say very loudly that they are not isolated,
and that they are welcome everywhere," said Irina Filatova, Emeritus
humanities professor at the University of KwaZulu-Natal.
"(That) will not endear (southern Africa) to the U.S. or the
British, but it doesn't mean they will stop trading," she said.
"It's too important."
(Editing by William Maclean)
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