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The
group had last month raised its outlook to a near-normal season
and number of storms. On Thursday, it boosted its forecast to 18
named storms, producing nine hurricanes, four of which could
become major storms with winds of at least 111 miles per hour
(179 kph).
"Most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record
warm sea surface temperatures," Colorado State's Tropical
Meteorology and Climate Research group said in its latest
update. Those temperatures are "the primary reason for the
increase in our forecast numbers," CSU said.
The effect of El Nino, a weather phenomenon that suppresses
Atlantic hurricane activity, this year has been offset by very
hot ocean waters.
"The high chance of a robust El Nino is why CSU's hurricane
forecast is not for every more activity," wrote CSU researcher
Phil Klotzbach.
Warm waters fuel more energetic storms by putting more vapor
into the air, which can produce more intense precipitation.
June average sea surface temperatures across the north Atlantic
were 0.91 degrees Celsius higher than the average for 1991-2020,
and half a degree greater than the previous warmest June, the
European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, which tracks
ocean and air temperatures, said on Thursday.
The Atlantic storm season began on June 1 and runs through Nov.
30.
CSU's raised outlook is well above that of the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which predicts a
near-normal season with between 12 and 17 named storms, five to
nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes.
(Reporting by Gary McWilliams; Editing by Marguerita Choy, David
Holmes and Conor Humphries)
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