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The
risk of a world recession amid monetary policy tightening since
last year has cast a pall over export-led economies, with many
countries including Japan relying on domestic consumption to
underpin growth.
The trade data, released by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) on
Thursday, showed exports rose 1.5% year-on-year last month,
below the 2.3% gain expected by 15 economists in a Reuters poll,
but faster than a 0.6% rise in May.
It marked the first trade surplus since July 2021.
Exports were led by U.S.-bound shipments of cars and mining
machinery, while China-bound shipments of steel, chips and
nonferrous metal caused a double-digit decline in overall
exports to China.
"The effects of U.S. and European rate hikes aimed at curbing
demand and inflation will persist from now on, while the Chinese
economy is struggling despite some stimulus steps, all of which
deprive the global economy of a growth engine," said Takeshi
Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
"Going forward, it could be hard for Japan to maintain a trade
surplus in a stable manner unless exports regain strength and
global commodity prices keep import costs low."
Imports fell 12.9% year-on-year in June, versus the median
estimate for a 11.2% decrease. The decline in the value of
imports, caused by drops in crude, coal and liquefied natural
gas, should help ease concerns about rising costs of purchases.
The overall trade numbers produced a trade surplus of 43 billion
yen ($308.11 million), confounding the median estimate for a
90.1 billion yen deficit.
A weak yen and surging import costs have led to nearly two years
of trade deficits in Japan, another challenge for policymakers
hoping to shore up a fragile recovery following the end of COVID
curbs.
By region, exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner,
fell 11% year-on-year last month, due to drops in shipments of
steel, chips and nonferrous metal, following a 3.4% decline in
May.
U.S.-bound shipments, Japan's major ally, rose 11.7%
year-on-year in June, led by shipments of cars, construction and
mining machinery, following a 9.4% rise in the previous month.
($1 = 139.5600 yen)
(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Shri Navaratnam,
Stephen Coates and Angus MacSwan)
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