British Prime Minister Sunak avoids wipeout in key elections
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[July 21, 2023]
By Andrew MacAskill and Elizabeth Piper
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's governing
Conservatives lost two strategically important parliamentary seats on
Friday but unexpectedly retained Boris Johnson's old constituency in a
setback for the opposition Labor Party.
The Conservatives' narrow victory in Johnson's seat gave Sunak some
breathing space to try to narrow Labor's large lead in the polls by
aiming to reduce high inflation and ease a cost-of-living crisis before
a national election expected next year.
Sunak was quick to hail the win as proof the national election was not a
"done deal". In a cafe in the constituency, he told reporters: "The
message I take away is that we have to double down, stick to our plan
and deliver for people."
But the scale of the challenge was highlighted by the loss of the once
safe Conservative parliamentary seat of Selby and Ainsty in northeast
England, where Labor overturned the biggest Conservative majority at a
by-election since World War Two.
Labor leader Keir Starmer said that victory showed "just how powerful
the demand for change is".
The Conservatives also suffered a crushing loss in another vote but the
retention of the seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip just outside central
London by fewer than 500 votes ensured Sunak avoided becoming the first
British leader to lose three by-elections on a single day in more than
half a century.
Conservative former minister David Jones told Reuters his party now
needed to push economic policies to rebuild support in traditionally
strong areas. "With up to 18 months until the election, there is time to
do it," he said.
Sunak, a former finance minister and investment banker, has tried to use
his technocratic leadership to restore the Conservatives' credibility
after a series of scandals last year forced Johnson to resign as prime
minister, and economic turmoil prompted his successor, Liz Truss, to
quit after just six weeks.
He is expected to reshuffle his senior ministers soon to pick his team
to fight the next election.
With stubbornly high inflation, economic stagnation, rising mortgage
rates, industrial unrest and long waiting times to use the state-run
health service, the Conservatives had been braced for the possibility of
losing all three seats.
SAFETY FIRST STRATEGY
In national opinion polls, Sunak's Conservatives are trailing Labor by
about 20 points, which suggests the governing party will find it
difficult to win a fifth consecutive national election.
But Labor's loss in Uxbridge shows it could struggle to secure a clear
parliamentary majority.
John Curtice, Britain's best-known pollster, said the Uxbridge result
suggested the most likely outcome of a national vote was a hung
parliament and Starmer might see more debate within the party about his
"safety first, Ming vase strategy".
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UXBRIDGE, ENGLAND - JULY 21: Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak visits Uxbridge to congratulate Conservative
Party candidate, Steve Tuckwell, after he won the Uxbridge and South
Ruislip by-election, on July 21, 2023 in Uxbridge, Britain. Carl
Court/Pool via REUTERS
Starmer has been criticized by some in his party for sticking to a
disciplined stance on public finances, refusing to make any uncosted
offerings and sometimes dropping policies he believes a Labor
government could not afford.
"The tide is still a long way out for the Conservatives and they
still have an awful long way to go before they look as though they
might have a chance of being able to retain power after the next
general election," Curtice told the BBC.
LABOUR FRAGILITY?
The Uxbridge by-election was called after Johnson's shock decision
to quit parliament last month after he was found to have made
misleading statements over parties held in Downing Street during the
coronavirus pandemic. Johnson denied misleading parliament.
The winning Conservative candidate, Steve Tuckwell, said his party's
victory was because of local rather national factors, pointing to
the issue of London’s Labor mayor extending the ultra-low emission
zone (ULEZ) to include suburban areas such as Uxbridge meaning some
voters had to pay more for their cars.
One Conservative lawmaker said the opposition to ULEZ was a winner
for the party and could help its candidate in the London mayoral
election in May.
The other results exposed the Conservatives' vulnerabilities on two
fronts: the loss of the rural Selby seat in the north of England,
and one in the southwest, a traditional stronghold.
The Conservatives had won large majorities in both in the 2019
general election.
Labor won Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire by 4,000 votes with the
Conservatives unable to defend a majority of 20,137 with lawmakers
saying Conservative supporters stayed at home. The seat was vacated
after an ally of Johnson resigned in solidarity with the former
prime minister.
In Somerton and Frome in southwest England, the centrist Liberal
Democrats managed to overturn a Conservative majority of 19,213
after a third member of parliament quit, in that case over
allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use.
Curtice said Labor's loss in Uxbridge shows the "potential
fragility" of the party's lead in the polls while the Conservatives
continue to lose voters in southern areas.
He said the two main "political party leaders have been left with
something to think about in the wake of these results".
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill and Elizabeth Piper, additional
reporting by Farouq Suleiman and Suban Abdulla, editing by Tom
Hogue, Robert Birsel, Simon Cameron-Moore and Andrew Heavens)
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