Spain's election yields no clear winner, coalition negotiations loom
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[July 24, 2023]
By David Latona and Belén Carreño
MADRID (Reuters) -No clear winner emerged in a nailbiting finish to
Spain's election on Sunday as the right failed to fulfill predictions of
a victory big enough to push Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez from power.
The two leading parties will seek to negotiate coalition deals in
pursuit of a governing majority but analysts warned the process could
end in a hung parliament and another election.
With 100% of votes counted by 1:30 a.m. on Monday (2330 GMT), the
opposition center-right People's Party (PP) had 136 seats in parliament
while Sanchez ruling Socialists (PSOE) had 122 seats.
Both were short of the 176 seats needed to govern. But the Socialists
performed better than forecast while the PP failed to clinch a predicted
clear majority, injecting drama into the vote counting.
The parties with the greatest potential to be kingmakers were nearly
even with far-right Vox on 33 and far-left Sumar on 31 seats.
The result meant that Sanchez went from likely outgoing premier to a
potential contender to form another government. It also all but
torpedoed the prospect of a far-right party taking part in another
European government as pollsters had projected with a PP and Vox
coalition.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Jul/24/images/ads/current/debbiesfloral_lda_060123.png)
The Teneo advisory firm put Sanchez' odds of forming a coalition far
above those of PP leader Alberto Nuñez Feijoo, with a 45% probability he
could negotiate a deal with far-left Sumar and smaller parties. But it
assigned the same percentage probability to a new election being
required.
The lack of a clear result cast a shadow on Spain's current presidency
of the European Union council and risked unsettling markets.
Speaking to jubilant supporters outside the PSOE's central Madrid
headquarters late on Sunday, Sanchez said Spaniards had rejected the
"backward-looking bloc, which proposed a total repeal of all the
progress we have made over the last four years."
In a more muted address at the PP headquarters across town, Feijoo
insisted his party had won the election and would seek to avoid
uncertainty by speaking to all willing parties to form a government. Vox
leader Santiago Abascal said Sanchez could block any attempt by the
right to form a government.
King Felipe VI will invite Feijoo, the top vote winner, to try to secure
the prime ministership. In a similar situation in 2015, PP leader
Mariano Rajoy declined the king's invitation, saying he could not muster
the support.
If Feijoo declines, the king may turn to Sanchez with the same request.
The law does not set a deadline for the process but if no candidate
secures a majority within two months of the first vote on the prime
minister, new elections must be held.
Sanchez called a surprise snap election after the left took a drubbing
in local elections in May.
Sunday's vote coincided with what would have been many Spaniards' summer
holidays and one of the hottest months in the sunbaked nation. Voters
showed up in swimsuits and used ballots as fans while polling stations
brought in air conditioners or moved voting tables outside.
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![](../images/072423PIX/news_m49.jpg)
Supporters of Spain's opposition
People's Party wave flags outside the party's headquarters on the
day of the general election, in Madrid, Spain, July 23, 2023.
REUTERS/Juan Medina
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Jul/24/images/ads/current/graue_lda_WHITETRUCKpreowned_070323.jpg)
Turnout was up, at 70.40% compared to 66.23% in the last election in
2019.
Polls in the weeks leading up to voting - and even those released as
the final ballot box was sealed at 9 p.m. - predicted a working
majority for Feijoo's PP and Vox.
Ignacio Jurado, political science professor at Madrid's Carlos III
University, blamed the PP's negative campaign against Sanchez for a
drop in support and said Sanchez's abrupt move in calling snap
elections might still pay off.
"The PP needed something more, especially because Vox is a
hindrance," he said.
'NOT LOOKING GOOD'
As the results rolled in on Sunday night, a mood of jubilation
outside the PP headquarters turned anxious as the gap between the PP
and PSOE remained stubbornly slim.
Galo Contreras, PP mayor of a town in the northern Burgos province,
said he was not surprised the race was so close given missteps by
the PP in the last week.
Each seat gained for the PP was loudly celebrated by the crowd of
supporters. But one admitted as the night went on: "This isn't
looking good."
Meanwhile, at the Socialists' headquarters, some senior officials
were smiling. A supporter in the corridor said gleefully: "We were
dead but we're now alive."
Feijoo could try to persuade smaller parties to back a PP-Vox
coalition. But many appear reluctant to support the ascent of a
far-right party into power for the first time since the four-decade
rule of dictator Francisco Franco, who died in 1975.
Sanchez has more options for negotiations but may still struggle to
cobble together a majority, with potential allies looking for
concessions in return for their support.
In the present scenario, Sanchez's PSOE would rely heavily on
Catalan separatist parties Junts and ERC or Basque separatists EH
Bildu.
Junts' main candidate recently said the party would seek a new vote
on Catalan independence in return for coalition support, while the
region's former leader, Carles Puigdemont, has said he would support
neither Sanchez nor Feijoo.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Jul/24/images/ads/current/ldn_sda_NILA_012823.png)
Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, director of the Madrid office of the
European Council on Foreign Relations, said Spain was now faced with
"a catastrophic tie".
(Reporting by Pietro Lombardi, Corina Pons, Belen Carreno, David
Latona and Emma Pinedo, additional reporting by Jesus Aguado and
Joan Faus; Writing by Charlie Devereux and Aislinn Laing; Graphics
by Andrei Khalip; Editing by Nick Macfie, Frances Kerry and Cynthia
Osterman)
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