France and Spain give euro zone economy a boost before outlook darkens
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[July 28, 2023] PARIS/MADRID
(Reuters) - The French and Spanish economies displayed unexpected
resilience in the second quarter but stagnation in powerhouse Germany
pointed to renewed weakness ahead for the euro zone, as manufacturing
ails and services slow.
France and Spain grew at a sustained pace on the back of stronger
exports and tourism while Germany, the euro zone's biggest country,
remained the worst-performing major economy in the bloc.
German gross domestic product stagnated in the second quarter after the
economy fell into a mild recession in winter. It was mainly household
consumption which helped avoid a longer recession.
Although there were some positive trends, German Economy Minister Robert
Habeck said the figures were "anything but satisfactory."
Weak purchasing power, thinned-out industrial order books, the impact of
the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades, and the
expected slowdown of the U.S. economy, all argue in favor of weak
economic activity, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
"We continue to see the German economy being stuck in the twilight zone
between stagnation and recession," Brzeski said.
Data from France and Spain, the bloc's second and forth largest
economies, was more optimistic. France's gross domestic product expanded
in the second quarter a faster-than-expected 0.5%, while the Spanish
economy grew 0.4%.
French growth was driven by exports, boosted largely by the delivery of
a cruise liner. In Spain, external demand, which includes foreign
tourism, a pillar of the country's activity, led the growth.
"We see that for the first time, French growth is driven by exports, by
corporate investment much more than by household consumption," Finance
Minister Bruno Le Maire told RTL radio. "This shows once more that our
production engine is running well and efficiently."
Despite Germany's stagnation, the data from Spain and France should help
euro zone growth pick up from the 0% recorded in the first three months
of the year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast second quarter growth
of 0.4% when bloc-wide figures are released on Monday.
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Cranes are seen at a construction site
in Nice, France, May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard
In Germany, revised figures from the statistics office showed its
winter recession was slight shallower than first reported. It saw a
0.1% GDP decline in the first quarter from a prior estimate of a
0.3% drop and a 0.4% contraction in the last quarter of 2022,
revised from a 0.5% decline.
STAGNATING
Looking further ahead, there is an uncertain outlook for the euro
zone which is giving the European Central Bank pause for thought in
its rate-hiking campaign to fight record inflation.
Big firms in the bloc are recording stagnating activity levels and
see no improvement in the current quarter with risks tilted towards
even more negative outcomes, the ECB said on Friday based on a
survey of large firms.
The survey adds to an already gloomy picture with a raft of
indicators from PMI readings to GDP and lending data all suggesting
that the bloc was performing at the weaker end of expectations with
recession risks on the rise.
"Contacts continued to describe a situation consistent with broadly
stagnating activity overall," the ECB said based on a survey of 73
firms. "Current trends in activity were likely to persist in the
third quarter, with the balance of risks a few quarters ahead tilted
mildly to the downside."
The ECB raised rates for the ninth successive time on Thursday but
left the door open to a pause in September, even though core
inflation seems to be stickier than previously thought.
"We continue to think that monetary tightening will take an
increasing toll on activity in the second half of this year," said
Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.
(Reporting by Tassilo Hummel, Inti Landauro, Maria Martinez and
Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Dominique Vidalon, Christopher Cushing
and Toby Chopra)
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