China's snub of U.S. military leader highlights escalation risk
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[June 03, 2023]
By Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart and Yew Lun Tian
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) -Brief smiles and handshakes by U.S. and
Chinese military leaders at a luxury hotel in Singapore on Friday belie
a deep freeze in communications between the two armed forces that is
becoming a growing worry at the Pentagon.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had sought a proper meeting with his
Chinese counterpart at the annual Shangri-la Dialogue but Beijing
refused. Instead, the retired U.S. Army general had to settle for a
quick exchange at a dinner ahead of a weekend full of meetings among
Asian military leaders.
The awkward encounter is just the latest example of what U.S. officials
and analysts say is a troubling disparity between how the two countries
view military risks, with the United States pushing for more and deeper
military communications and China reluctant to engage.
Relations between the superpowers are increasingly acrimonious, with
friction over issues from Taiwan and China's military activity in the
South China Sea to U.S. efforts to hold back China's semiconductor
industry.
The U.S. military has responded by pushing for open lines of
communication with their Chinese counterparts - both at senior and
working levels - to mitigate the risk of potential flare-ups, something
it has long advocated.
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China's leaders, by contrast, have been slow to establish military
contacts and quick to shut them down during periods of diplomatic
tension. After the U.S. downed an alleged Chinese spy balloon earlier
this year the phone lines went silent and have stayed that way, say U.S.
officials.
This has frustrated the United States.
"We have had a lot of difficulty in terms of when we have proposed phone
calls, proposed meetings and dialogues," said Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant
secretary of defense for the Indo-Pacific, speaking at event last week.
"We ... have had an outstretched hand on this question of
military-to-military engagement and we have yet to have a consistently
willing partner."
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson at the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on
Friday in an emailed statement that communication between China and the
United States was conducive to a greater mutual understanding.
"However, now the U.S. says it wants to speak to the Chinese side while
seeking to suppress China through all possible means and continue
imposing sanctions on Chinese officials, institutions and companies,"
the statement said. "Is there any sincerity in and significance of any
communication like this?"
RISKS AND BENEFITS
China had an obvious reason to push back on a meeting between Austin and
China's Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu: Li has been under U.S.
sanctions since 2018 over the purchase of combat aircraft and equipment
from Russia's main arms exporter.
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing
University, said Beijing believed the sanctions on Li showed that the
United States was not sincere in efforts to talk with China.
"The main reason why China is reluctant to have its defense minister
meet with the U.S. is because we think dialogue must be on equal terms,"
Zhu said.
But other factors lie behind this, say analysts, including a different
assessment of the risks and benefits and divergent approaches to
negotiation.
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![](../images/060323PIX/news_m99.jpg)
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin
III, attends the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore June 2, 2023.
REUTERS/Caroline Chia
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While neither country wants an accidental military clash, China
believes the U.S. military is operating in its sphere of influence,
including in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
As a result, China's leaders don't believe it's in their interest to
use military talks to lower U.S. anxieties, said Jacob Stokes, a
senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
"China wants the United States and its partners to feel worried
about rising military and security risks in East Asia and then for
Washington change its operational behavior to something that Beijing
views as less threatening," he said.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, adds
that China also sees the risks as lower than the U.S. does.
"Especially given the ongoing Ukraine war, the Chinese don’t quite
see the danger of getting into a military conflict with U.S. as
significant. Had they believed the threat is higher, they would
adopt a different attitude toward the mil-to-mil dialogue,” said
Sun.
Then there is China's view of how military talks fit into the
broader U.S.-China relationship. The United States may want to keep
security-related discussions on a separate track, but Chinese
leaders would rather keep the focus on trade and economic issues.
From that perspective, military talks are something to bargain with.
"Beijing is clearly favoring the economic relationship with American
business and government over the more contentious political and
defense channels," said Daniel Russel, the top diplomat for East
Asia under Obama, now with Asia Society Policy Institute.
CIA director William Burns visited China last month and held talks
with Chinese counterparts to emphasize "the importance of
maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels," a
U.S. official said on Friday.
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COLLISIONS AND EMERGENCY LANDINGS
An accidental military clash with China is not a theoretical danger.
In 2001 a U.S. spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan island
after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet.
One Chinese pilot died and Beijing detained the 24-member U.S. crew
for 11 days, releasing them only after Washington sent a letter
saying it was "very sorry."
A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of
anonymity, said that since 2021 China had declined or not responded
to over a dozen requests to talk with the Pentagon and nearly ten
working-level engagement requests.
The responses vary but, as with the latest snub, the answer from
Beijing is no, one official said, without offering details.
"Frankly, it’s just the latest in a litany of excuses," the senior
U.S. official said.
(Reporting by Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart, David Brunnstrom, Michael
Martina, Yew Lun Tian, Martina Pollard and Laurie Chen.Editing by
Don Durfee, Alistair Bell and Gerry Doyle)
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