US bond investors eked out positive returns, see better second half year
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[June 28, 2023] By
Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. government bond investors have racked up
positive returns so far this year, with the higher income from bonds
offering a buffer against market weakness if the Federal Reserve
increases interest rates again.
It is a turnaround from the losses of 2022, which marked the end of a
40-year bull market in bonds, as the U.S. central bank rapidly hiked
rates to curb the hottest inflation in more than four decades.
Rate hikes erode the value of existing bonds because new paper offers
higher yields, but now, even if more hikes are coming, the bulk of
monetary tightening is most likely over.
This leaves investors to focus on how to play a widely anticipated
economic slowdown - generally a good scenario for bonds because when
central banks ease rates to stimulate demand existing fixed-rate
securities are worth more.
"The current level of yields on offer have not been seen since before
the Global Financial Crisis," said Arif Husain, chief investment officer
and head of international fixed income at T. Rowe Price.
"As we see economic activity slow, high-quality duration has grown in
appeal as investors see policymakers already having one eye on when to
ease monetary conditions," said Husain, referring to bonds' sensitivity
to interest rate changes.
Returns on U.S. bonds, including interest payments and price changes,
totaled 2.4% so far this year, compared with negative 13% last year,
according to the Morningstar US Core Bond TR USD index, which tracks
fixed-rate, investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated securities with
maturities greater than one year.
The U.S. Treasury component of the FTSE US Broad Investment-Grade Bond
Index has risen about 1.8% so far this year, after falling about 12.6%
last year, the biggest annual decline since inception in 1980.
Some of the biggest bond funds have reflected this year's improvement.
Year-to-date, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, with nearly
$300 billion in assets, posted a 2.56% return, Morningstar data as of
June 20 showed. PIMCO's flagship $122 billion bond fund, the Income
Fund, posted a total return of 3.89%. BlackRock's iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF, with nearly $92 billion in assets, posted a 2.58%
return.
Rising rates tend to impact shorter-dated bonds more than longer ones.
And higher borrowing costs increase the odds of a recession, when
investors typically seek protection in longer-dated securities.
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U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in
front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February
8, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
So far this year, Treasury yields - which move inversely to prices -
have increased in the short part of the curve as the Fed raised
rates another 75 basis points on top of 425 basis points last year.
Two-year Treasury yields stood at 4.76% as of Tuesday, up from 4.4%
at the beginning of the year.
However, longer-dated bond yields, which are driven by macroeconomic
expectations more than short-term monetary policies, have either
held steady or declined, as the market anticipated an economic
slowdown. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, for instance, have
declined to 3.77% from 3.8%.
"This means they have delivered positive returns from the interest
they have earned over nearly half a year, and in the case where
yields have declined, a small capital gain too," said Husain.
The yield-to-maturity of government bonds, as measured by the ICE
BofA US Treasury Index, stood at 4.3% as of last week, up from 3.1%
a year earlier.
If inflation remains stubbornly high, bond prices could still
weaken, but given how much yields have already risen, the potential
downside is marginal, some investors said.
At its last rate-setting meeting this month, the Fed anticipated two
more hikes this year that would bring the fed funds rate to 5.6%.
"If we think of how much further they can tighten, that risk is now
significantly lower than at the beginning of 2022," said John
Madziyire, senior portfolio manager and head of U.S. Treasuries and
TIPS at Vanguard Fixed Income Group.
With the end of the hiking cycle in sight, and with high-quality
bond yields at 4%-5%, investors can "get paid to wait," said Emily
Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment
Management.
"We still like bonds, even if we do see ... potentially higher
yields over the short term, because that income is now so
compelling."
(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Megan Davies and Richard
Chang)
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