Europeans plan to keep ballistic missile sanctions on Iran
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[June 29, 2023]
By John Irish, Arshad Mohammed and Parisa Hafezi
PARIS/WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters) -European diplomats have told Iran they
plan to retain European Union ballistic missile sanctions set to expire
in October under the defunct 2015 Iran nuclear deal, four sources said,
a step that could provoke Iranian retaliation.
The sources cited three reasons for keeping the sanctions: Russia's use
of Iranian drones against Ukraine; the possibility Iran might transfer
ballistic missiles to Russia; and depriving Iran of the nuclear deal's
benefits given Tehran has violated the accord, albeit only after the
United States did so first.
Keeping the EU sanctions would reflect Western efforts to prevent Iran
from developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them despite
the collapse of the 2015 deal, which then-U.S. President Donald Trump
abandoned in 2018.
The crux of that pact, which Iran made with Britain, China, France,
Germany, Russia and the United States, limited Tehran's nuclear program
to make it harder for it to get fissile material for a bomb in return
for relief from economic sanctions.
As a result of Trump's withdrawal from the deal and U.S. President Joe
Biden's failure to revive it, Iran could make the fissile material for
one bomb in 12 days or so, according to U.S. estimates, down from a year
when the accord was in force.
With that deal effectively dead, Iran's relations with the West have
deteriorated over the last year, leading Washington and its allies to
look for ways to de-escalate tensions and, if that happened, for a way
to revive some kind of nuclear limits.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, which the West sees as a threat to
Israel and Gulf Arab oil exporters.
POSSIBLE IRANIAN RETALIATION
"The Iranians have been told quite clearly (of plans to keep the
sanctions) and now the question is what, if any, retaliatory steps the
Iranians might take and (how) to anticipate that," said a Western
diplomat on condition of anonymity.
The EU sanctions are set to expire on Oct. 18 under a U.N. resolution
that enshrined the 2015 nuclear deal.
They "called upon" Iran not to do anything to develop ballistic missiles
that could carry nuclear weapons, a phrase urging Iran not to do so but
short of a mandatory prohibition.
They also barred anyone from buying, selling or transferring drones and
their components capable of flying more than 300 km (186 miles) to or
from Iran without prior authorization from the U.N. Security Council,
permission that has not been granted.
Since 2017, Iran has carried out a series of ballistic missile tests and
satellite launches despite the resolution and, in May, it launched a
missile with a potential 2,000-km range.
European powers are alarmed by the growing defense relationship between
Tehran and Moscow, which Western officials say has seen Russia use
Iranian drones to strike Ukraine, and the possibility Iran could supply
ballistic missiles to Russia.
It was not clear whether the E3, a group comprised of Britain, France
and Germany, told Iran of their intent to retain the EU sanctions when
their senior officials met Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri
Kani on June 12 in Abu Dhabi.
EU diplomat Enrique Mora, who co-ordinates talks on the 2015 deal,
raised the issue of keeping the EU sanctions when he met Bagheri Kani in
Doha on June 21, but the Iranian official refused to discuss the matter,
an Iranian official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei visits the Iranian centrifuges in Tehran, Iran June 11,
2023. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News
Agency) via REUTERS/ File Photo
A second Iranian official brushed off the possibility of the
sanctions remaining, saying Tehran had advanced its nuclear and
missile programs for years despite Western sanctions.
"Maintaining sanctions, in any capacity and form, will not hinder
Iran's ongoing advancements," said this Iranian official, also on
condition of anonymity. "It serves as a reminder that the West
cannot be relied upon and trusted."
NUCLEAR DEAL 'NO LONGER EXISTS'
Britain's foreign ministry did not comment on whether the E3 planned
to keep the sanctions or had told Iran of any decision.
However, a British foreign ministry spokesperson said the June 12
talks in Abu Dhabi "covered the range of our concerns about Iran's
behaviour, including its continued nuclear escalation."
France and Germany's foreign ministries have made similar comments
about those talks.
A European diplomat said Mora had started laying the legal
groundwork to retain the sanctions, which would have to be approved
by all 27 EU members. Two sources said the issue had not yet been
discussed among all EU states.
"The lifting of sanctions was based on the principle that 2231 would
be respected," this diplomat said, referring to the U.N. Security
Council resolution that enshrined the 2015 deal. "That has not been
the case, so there is a discussion with the Iranians to make clear
that we won't lift these sanctions."
EU Spokesperson Nabila Massrali said the JCPOA sets out in some
detail the commitments of different participants on the so-called
Transition Day which was still several months away (Oct. 18).
"We will provide further information on EU related aspects in due
course," she said in response to detailed questions by Reuters.
Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, any party could trigger the
"snapback" or return of all sanctions that it removed. Most U.S.
sanctions were restored after Trump left the deal.
However, three sources said the E3 did not wish to do this chiefly
because it would undercut a threat conveyed in a letter from their
foreign ministers to Iran last year that they would trigger
"snapback" if Iran enriched uranium to weapons-grade.
Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity and the U.N. nuclear
watchdog has found traces enriched to 83.7%, short of the 90% seen
as weapons grade. The 2015 deal capped enrichment at 3.67%.
Henry Rome, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy, said an EU decision to retain the sanctions would be the
first significant instance of the E3 not abiding by the terms of the
nuclear deal.
"It doesn't replace the U.N. provisions but it would ensure, at
least within the powers of European governments, that they are not
condoning this type of Iranian behavior," Rome said. "And it does
reflect that the Security Council resolution is enshrining a deal
that no longer exists in any realistic form."
(Reporting by John Irish in Paris, Arshad Mohammed in Washington and
Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Additional reporting by Andrew Gray and
Sabine Siebold in Brussels; Writing by Arshad Mohammed and John
Irish; Editing by Daniel Wallis)
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