Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US missiles,
Starlink
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[March 08, 2023]
By Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -China needs the capability to shoot down
low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters
against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military
researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning
for possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia.
A Reuters review of almost 100 articles in more than 20 defence journals
reveals an effort across China's military-industrial complex to
scrutinise the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be
deployed against Chinese forces in a war over Taiwan.
The Chinese-language journals, which also examine Ukrainian sabotage
operations, reflect the work of hundreds of researchers across a network
of People's Liberation Army (PLA)-linked universities, state-owned
weapons manufacturers and military intelligence think-tanks.
While Chinese officials have avoided any openly critical comments about
Moscow's actions or battlefield performance as they call for peace and
dialogue, the publicly available journal articles are more candid in
their assessments of Russian shortcomings.
China's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment about
the researchers' findings. Reuters could not determine how closely the
conclusions reflect the thinking among China's military leaders.
Two military attaches and another diplomat familiar with China's defence
studies said the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, headed
by President Xi Jinping, ultimately sets and directs research needs, and
that it was clear from the volume of material that Ukraine was an
opportunity the military leadership wanted to seize. The three people
and other diplomats spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity
because they were not authorised to discuss their work publicly.
A U.S. defence official told Reuters that despite differences with the
situation in Taiwan, the Ukraine war offered insights for China.
"A key lesson the world should take away from the rapid international
response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that aggression will
increasingly be met with unity of action," said the official, who spoke
on the condition of anonymity because of the topic's sensitivity,
without addressing concerns raised in the Chinese research about
specific U.S. capabilities.
STARLINK GAZING
Half a dozen papers by PLA researchers highlight Chinese concern at the
role of Starlink, a satellite network developed by Elon Musk's
U.S.-based space exploration company SpaceX, in securing the
communications of Ukraine's military amid Russian missile attacks on the
country's power grid.
"The excellent performance of 'Starlink' satellites in this
Russian-Ukrainian conflict will certainly prompt the U.S. and Western
countries to use 'Starlink' extensively" in possible hostilities in
Asia, said a September article co-written by researchers at the Army
Engineering University of the PLA.
The authors deemed it "urgent" for China - which aims to develop its own
similar satellite network – to find ways to shoot down or disable
Starlink. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese
researchers that drone warfare merits greater investment. China has been
testing drones in the skies around Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that
Beijing has vowed to bring under its control.
"These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the 'door kicker' of
future wars," noted one article in a tank warfare journal published by
state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, that
described drones' ability to neutralise enemy defences.
While some of the journals are operated by provincial research
institutes, others are official publications for central government
bodies such as the State Administration of Science, Technology and
Industry for National Defence, which oversees weapons production and
military upgrades.
An article in the administration's official journal in October noted
that China should improve its ability to defend military equipment in
view of the "serious damage to Russian tanks, armored vehicles and
warships" inflicted by Stinger and Javelin missiles operated by
Ukrainian fighters.
Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, said the Ukrainian conflict had provided impetus
to long-standing efforts by China's military scientists to develop
cyber-warfare models and find ways of better protecting armour from
modern Western weapons.
"Starlink is really something new for them to worry about; the military
application of advanced civilian technology that they can't easily
replicate," Koh said.
Beyond technology, Koh said he was not surprised that Ukrainian special
forces operations inside Russia were being studied by China, which, like
Russia, moves troops and weapons by rail, making them vulnerable to
sabotage.
Despite its rapid modernisation, the PLA lacks recent combat experience.
China's invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was its last major battle – a
conflict that rumbled on until the late 1980s.
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A Ukrainian service member holds a
Javelin missile system at a position on the front line in the north
Kyiv region, Ukraine March 13, 2022. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File
Photo
Reuters' review of the Chinese journals comes amid Western concern
that China may be planning to supply Russia with lethal aid for its
assault on Ukraine, which Beijing denies.
TAIWAN, AND BEYOND
Some of the Chinese articles stress Ukraine's relevance given the
risk of a regional conflict pitting China against the United States
and its allies, possibly over Taiwan. The U.S. has a policy of
"strategic ambiguity" over whether it would intervene militarily to
defend the island, but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the
means to defend itself.
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has said
that Xi has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by
2027, while noting that the Chinese leader was probably unsettled by
Russia's experience in Ukraine.
One article, published in October by two researchers at the PLA's
National Defence University, analysed the effect of U.S. deliveries
of high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine, and
whether China's military should be concerned.
"If HIMARS dares to intervene in Taiwan in the future, what was once
known as an 'explosion-causing tool' will suffer another fate in
front of different opponents," it concluded.
The article highlighted China's own advanced rocket system,
supported by reconnaissance drones, and noted that Ukraine's success
with HIMARS had relied on U.S. sharing of target information and
intelligence via Starlink.
Four diplomats, including the two military attaches, said PLA
analysts have long worried about superior U.S. military might, but
Ukraine has sharpened their focus by providing a window on a large
power's failure to overwhelm a smaller one backed by the West.
While that scenario has obvious Taiwan comparisons, there are
differences, particularly given the island's vulnerability to a
Chinese blockade that could force any intervening militaries into a
confrontation.
Western countries, by contrast, are able to supply Ukraine by land
via its European neighbours.
References to Taiwan are relatively few in the journals reviewed by
Reuters, but diplomats and foreign scholars tracking the research
say that Chinese defence analysts are tasked to provide separate
internal reports for senior political and military leaders. Reuters
was unable to access those internal reports.
Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said in February that
China's military is learning from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that
any attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed. Taiwan is
also studying the conflict to update its own battle strategies.
Several articles analyse the strengths of the Ukrainian resistance,
including special forces' sabotage operations inside Russia, the use
of the Telegram app to harness civilian intelligence, and the
defense of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.
Russian successes are also noted, such as tactical strikes using the
Iskander ballistic missile.
The journal Tactical Missile Technology, published by state-owned
weapons manufacturer China Aerospace Science and Industry
Corporation, produced a detailed analysis of the Iskander, but only
released a truncated version to the public.
Many other articles focus on the mistakes of Russia's invading army,
with one in the tank warfare journal identifying outdated tactics
and a lack of unified command, while another in an electronic
warfare journal said Russian communications interference was
insufficient to counter NATO's provision of intelligence to the
Ukrainians, leading to costly ambushes.
A piece published this year by researchers at the Engineering
University of the People's Armed Police assessed the insights China
could glean from the blowing-up of the Kerch Bridge in
Russian-occupied Crimea. The full analysis has not been released
publicly, however.
Beyond the battlefield, the work has covered the information war,
which the researchers conclude was won by Ukraine and its allies.
One February article by researchers at the PLA Information
Engineering University calls on China to preemptively prepare for a
global public opinion backlash similar to that experienced by
Russia.
China should "promote the construction of cognitive confrontation
platforms" and tighten control of social media to prevent Western
information campaigns from influencing its people during a conflict,
it said.
(Reporting by Eduardo Baptista in Beijing and Greg Torode in Hong
Kong; additional reporting by Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart in
Washington. Editing by David Crawshaw.)
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