ECB rate hike expected after Switzerland backs Credit Suisse
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[March 16, 2023] By
Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) - European markets rebounded on Thursday, as a 50
billion Swiss franc ($53.94 billion) lifeline for beleaguered lender
Credit Suisse teed traders up for an European Central Bank interest rate
decision later.
Credit Suisse's shares leapt more than 20% and the main European indexes
and Swiss franc all rose around 1% in early trading, after the Swiss
National Bank and financial regulator, FINMA, took action late on
Wednesday.
The SNB confirmed on Thursday that it will provide "liquidity" to the
lender. Credit Suisse, which said it is taking "decisive action", will
borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs from one of the world's leading
central banks.
Europe's bank shares bounced 2.3% having suffered their steepest one-day
drop in more than a year the previous session, while bond traders were
selling safe-haven government bonds again ahead of the ECB rate decision
later.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has been widely signalling a 50 basis
point hike, but the last week of turmoil, which has also seen two U.S.
banks collapse, means markets now see it as roughly a 50/50 call between
50 bps and 25 bps.
"I worry that the ECB is not going to pay enough attention to this risk
(banking sector problems) and that could be a mistake," said Stefan
Gerlach, Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and a former deputy
governor at Ireland's central bank.
The last week demonstrates what happens when major central banks like
the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB raise interest rates by hundreds of
basis points in a short period of time, he added.
"Whenever you do something that large, you know there is a risk waiting
somewhere in the financial system," Gerlach said. "It is like stretching
a rubber band, if you keep stretching it, is it going to break?"
Germany's two-year bond yield, which is highly sensitive to rate
expectations, was last up 16 basis points (bps) at 2.55% having plunged
54 bps on Wednesday in what had been a market-wide scramble for safety.
Overnight, Asian shares had fallen around 1% but it was largely a
catch-up move and had none of the frenzy witnessed in Europe the
previous day.
Wall Street futures were also pointing to a steady start there later
while demand had dropped for both the dollar and gold, the traditional
go-to plays for investors during market turbulence.
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Monitors displaying the stock index
prices and Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar are
seen at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan January 4, 2022.
REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
CONTAGION
Many investors though said it was far too early to give the all
clear.
JPMorgan analysts said the loan from the SNB would not be enough to
soothe investor concerns and the "status quo was no longer an
option", leaving a takeover for Credit Suisse as the most likely
outcome.
"I think we're getting into the hard hat territory again," said
Damian Rooney, a dealer at Perth stockbroker Argonaut.
"The word contagion is knocking about...we're getting fear across
the whole board here," he said. "The trouble is with the unwinding -
you don't know what you don't know."
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1% to its
lowest this year. Japan's bank shares, which are also seen as
vulnerable to interest rate rises, recovered some even deeper early
losses but still ended down 3.25%.
Two-year U.S. Treasuries are eying their best week since 1987 and
yields, which fall when prices rise, are down more than 66 basis
points since Friday. [US/]
The euro last stood 0.3% higher at $1.0612 and the Swiss franc was
up 0.9% at 0.9267 to the dollar. The preference for safety was still
supporting the yen which was up 0.4% at 132.89 per dollar in London
trading.
Oil prices also clawed back some ground after sliding to 15-month
lows in the previous session. Brent crude futures were up 60 cents
or 0.8% to $74.29 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude
futures (WTI) rose to $68.08 a barrel.
($1 = 0.9270 Swiss francs)
(Writing by Marc Jones; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
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