The Fed sees a looming credit crunch. What's that?
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[March 25, 2023] (Reuters)
- It's an old saw: A credit crunch is when your bank won't lend to you.
A credit crisis is when banks won't lend to each other.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday Silicon Valley Bank's
collapse and the banking system upheaval it triggered "are likely to
result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which
would in turn affect economic outcomes."
In other words: a credit crunch is coming.
Credit crunches are not new. They are frequent fellow travelers with
recessions, but not always so. They also come with varying severity and
durations, key factors Powell said remain unknown at the current time.
Some small and concentrated crunches can weigh on growth without
bringing the full economy to a standstill. Deeper lending clamp-downs
can hobble the economy for years.
Here's a look at some of the dynamics from past credit crunches in
comparison with what has been observed to now in the current episode.
CRUNCH VS CRISIS
Total credit from commercial banks - consisting of their bond holdings
and the full scope of loans to businesses and consumers, from routine
business credit and commercial real estate loans to residential
mortgages and credit cards - is just off its record high from
mid-February.
But the credit growth rate has recently fallen below its historic
average to a level that has often been associated with a recession.
Overall annual credit growth rarely turns negative, but when it
decelerates into the low single-digits as it has now, it shows that the
lending that helps fuel overall economic growth is under strain.
Only once since the early 1970s has it actually turned negative, in the
aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. That was indicative of the
lasting restraint that episode had on the recovery in credit and
economic growth overall.
LESS RISK
When credit conditions tighten, among the first categories of borrowers
to feel the pinch are those with lower means or with poorer credit
profiles as banks pull back from risk. One place to watch for that
dynamic is in the issuance of subprime auto loans.
New York Federal Reserve data shows those volumes hit the highest in
nearly two decades in the middle of last year, but had slowed somewhat
by year end, though on balance were at the upper end of volumes seen
before the pandemic. In the last big credit clamp-down, those loan
volumes fell by two-thirds between 2005 and 2009.
[to top of second column] |
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
participates in a news conference following a two-day meeting of the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, U.S., March 22,
2023. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo
CONSUMERS VS BUSINESS
When overall credit conditions tighten, banks usually rein in loans
to both consumers and businesses alike, though not always to the
same degree and not always at the same moment.
And sometimes special factors will create a pinch for one but not
the other. That was the case 8-10 years ago when low oil prices
triggered a credit crunch among U.S. oil fracking companies,
weighing heavily for a period on overall commercial loan growth
while consumer loan growth kept improving.
Excluding the COVID-19 recession - when commercial loan volumes were
distorted by pandemic relief efforts for businesses - business
credit has suffered the bigger blow in the recessions so far this
century. Consumer credit was particularly slow to recover from the
2007-2009 meltdown because of the centrality of residential
mortgages and the housing market to that crisis.
Annual growth in the two categories appears to have peaked around
the middle of last year, though both remain at around 10% or more -
well above the historic average growth rate of about 6.5%.
BANKS IN NEED
When banks find they cannot get the funding they need from
traditional sources - one another - they turn to the Fed, borrowing
from its "discount window," long dubbed the lender of last resort.
In 2008, the explosion of its use was a clear signal that crunch had
turned to crisis as it showed that banks, wary of the stigma
associated with turning to the discount window, had run out of other
options.
But the Fed has since taken steps to de-stigmatize the discount
window, including lowering the penalty interest rate it
traditionally charged. It saw widespread use during the early months
of the pandemic and usage spiked again in the last two weeks after
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse.
(Reporting By Dan Burns, Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider; Editing by
Andrea Ricci)
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