Study: States with less restrictive COVID policies outperformed those
with more restrictions
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[March 31, 2023]
By Kevin Bessler | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – A new study is shedding light on the outcomes of
states that placed restrictions on residents and businesses during the
COVID-19 pandemic.
The Paragon Health Institute compared the degree of state government
response measures developed by Oxford University to health, economic and
educational outcome measures in all 50 states and the District of
Columbia. The index measured government interventions including
state-enforced closures of businesses, schools, and other recreational
facilities; restrictions on public gatherings; and masking and social
distancing requirements.
Co-author and American Well-being Initiative Director Dr. Joel Zinberg
said states with fewer restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic
outperformed states like Illinois that implemented more restrictions.
“The important finding of our study is that states that imposed more
severe lockdown measures did not do any better than states that were
less restrictive in terms of health, and they did much worse in terms of
economic and educational outcomes,” Zinberg said.
The study showed severe government interventions strongly correlated
with worse economic outcomes, with increased unemployment and decreased
GDP, and also worse educational outcomes with fewer days of in-person
schooling.
In March 2020, Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued stay-at-home orders that lasted
for months. In May, in the face of increasing disregard of the
restrictions, some states loosened restrictions while Illinois stayed
completely shut down.
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Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
Courtesy of BlueRoomStream
The governor’s office even increased the penalty for businesses that
violated the orders and reopened.
Zinberg said Illinois’ restrictions resulted in average health outcomes
for residents, comparable to Florida which instituted few restrictions
on residents. He added the restrictions most likely exacerbated the
state’s outmigration as people voted with their feet and fled states
with severe restrictions.
“There was a significant correlation between a state’s degree of
lockdown and outmigration,” Zinberg said. “In other words, people were
fleeing with more severe restrictions to states with less severe
restrictions.”
Illinois has seen its population decline for nine consecutive years,
according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Between July 1, 2021, and July 1,
2022, the state lost 110,127 on net.
Paragon recommended that in future pandemics, policymakers should avoid
prolonged, and generalized restrictions and instead carefully tailor
government responses to specific areas, and balance the health benefits
against the economic, educational and social costs of specific response
measures.
Kevin Bessler reports on statewide issues in Illinois for
the Center Square. He has over 30 years of experience in radio news
reporting throughout the Midwest.
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