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Outbound shipments last month from the world's second largest
economy is expected to show growth of 8.0% year-on-year,
following an unexpected surge of 14.8% in March, according to
the median forecast of 27 economists in the poll finalised on
Monday.
Imports are still expected to paint a less favourable picture of
the overall economy, with economists predicting no growth,
similar to April, 2022, after falling by 1.4% year-on-year in
March.
The trade data will be released on Tuesday.
With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of
recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that
the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers
catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID
disruptions.
The cautious stance was backed by the recent official
manufacturing purchasing managers' index for April showing new
export orders contracting sharply and underlining the challenge
facing Chinese policymakers and businesses hoping for a robust
post-COVID economic recovery.
"We believe March's 14.8% year on year growth is unsustainable
and monthly export growth may drop to low single-digit or even
into negative territory again," Ting Lu, chief China economist
at Nomura, wrote in a note, citing a slowing global economy and
rising geopolitical tensions.
South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's
imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive
months of decline.
China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter
thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has
lagged amid weak global growth. Property market weakness,
slowing prices and surging bank savings are raising doubts about
demand.
The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5%
for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.
(Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Sujith Pai and Devayani
Sathyan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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