Turkey's Erdogan lags election rival in poll
Send a link to a friend
[May 11, 2023]
By Birsen Altayli and Jonathan Spicer
ISTANBUL (Reuters) -A survey by the closely-watched pollster Konda on
Thursday showed Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan lagging his main rival
Kemal Kilicdaroglu by more than five percentage points ahead of Sunday's
presidential election.
The survey put support for Erdogan on 43.7% and Kilicdaroglu on 49.3%,
leaving him short of the majority needed to win in the first round and
suggesting the election would go to a run-off between the two men on May
28.
The findings reinforced the impression that Erdogan faces the biggest
challenge of his two-decade rule in the vote. They were largely in line
with some other polls that put Kilicdaroglu, candidate of the main
opposition alliance, ahead.
Erdogan's task has been complicated by a cost-of-living crisis,
triggered by a lira slump and soaring inflation, and a devastating
earthquake in February which killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey
and left millions homeless.
The survey, carried out May 6-7, put support for the other two
candidates at 4.8% for Sinan Ogan and 2.2% for Muharrem Ince. Konda said
the majority of their voters were leaning towards voting for
Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party
(CHP) in a second round.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2019/Sep/05/images/ads/current/stclara_lda_SPONSOR_090519.png)
A Metropoll survey also showed the vote going to a second round, with
Kilicdaroglu getting 49.1% and Erdogan 46.9%. In a run-off, it showed
Kilicdaroglu winning with 51.3%.
But Hakan Akbas, managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, an
Istanbul-based political advisory, said Erdogan seemed to be on track to
achieve what he was hoping: a run off with Kilicdaroglu.
"Given the earthquakes and economic crisis, this would still be a
success for him. What matters now even more is parliamentary results,"
he said.
[to top of second column]
|
![](../images/051123PIX/news_a18.jpg)
People walk at Eminonu Square decorated
by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party flags ahead of
the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Istanbul,
Turkey May 10, 2023. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/May/11/images/ads/current/heartlandcollege_lda_050123.png)
"If it is a hung parliament, Erdogan will appeal to voters to select
stability over chaos likely following coalition of six opposition
parties."
The Konda survey put support for Erdogan's ruling alliance on 44.0%
in the parliamentary vote, ahead of the main opposition alliance on
39.9%. The pro-Kurdish HDP party, which is backing Kilicdaroglu, is
expected to play a 'kingmaker' role.
Konda said the HDP, running under another party's emblem due to the
threat of a court ban, and its leftist allies are seen winning 12.3%
of support in the parliamentary vote. That would leave Erdogan and
his allies in the minority.
"There is no doubt that Erdogan is facing a majority that wants
change - and that includes younger people," said Asli Aydintasbas, a
Brookings Institution visiting fellow. "The only question is whether
folks believe Kilicdaroglu is that agent of change."
"Whether he barely wins or not, I feel like the Erdogan era is
over," she added. "Turkish society is ready to move on. And sadly
President Erdogan is not leaving behind an institutional governance
model."
Konda, which publicly releases only one poll ahead of votes,
undertook face-to-face interviews with 3,480 people across 35
provincial centres. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.2% at
99% confidence level, Konda said.
(Additional reporting by Ece Toksabay and Ezgi Erkoyun; Writing by
Daren Butler;Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Frank Jack Daniel)
[© 2023 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |