Pakistan in uncharted territory as army seeks to vanquish Imran Khan
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[May 22, 2023]
By Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's military has struck back after an
unprecedented challenge to its hegemony by the popular Imran Khan and
his followers, but the nuclear-armed nation remains caught between its
most powerful institution and the man who was once a firm ally.
Khan's arrest on corruption charges earlier this month, which he says
was at the behest of the generals, led to violent nationwide protests,
attacks on military buildings and on the homes of senior officers,
allegedly by the former prime minister's supporters.
There has never been that kind of challenge to Pakistan's military,
which has held sway over the country since independence in 1947 with a
mixture of fear and respect. It has been in power for three of those
decades and has wielded extraordinary influence even with a civilian
government in office.
"I've seen the fall of Dhaka and of course there was a lot of opposition
later, but never of this severity," said Naeem Khalid Lodhi, a general
who was part of the army's top decision making process as a corps
commander, and later held key government posts.
The 1971 fall of Dhaka in what was then East Pakistan and the birth of
Bangladesh after defeat by arch-enemy India has been the lowest point
for Pakistan's military since 1947.
Populist civilian leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto took charge after that
debacle, holding sway over the army for five years. The generals,
however, staged a military coup in 1977, and stayed in power for 11
years. Military ruler Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq ordered Bhutto hanged.
Khan was released by court order two days after his arrest, but his
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party now faces the ire of the military.
Thousands of supporters have been arrested, including Khan's top aides.
The government has said those accused of being involved in attacks on
its installations will be tried by military courts - a platform
typically reserved for enemies of the state.
With Pakistan also grappling with a devastating economic crisis, a
showdown between the military and its most popular political leader
could push the nation of 220 million to the brink of chaos.
"(The military) is trying to assert raw power by invoking the draconian
Army Act against civil society and thereby risks destroying Pakistan’s
fragile constitutional system," said Shuja Nawaz, a distinguished fellow
at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center and author of "The Battle
for Pakistan".
A spokesperson for the military did not respond to several requests for
comment.
KHAN'S GAMBIT
While civilian organisations have historically been unable to stand up
to the military's might in a country where no elected prime minister has
completed a full term, Khan is unlikely to be a pushover.
The larger-than-life 70-year-old is an Oxford graduate, was part of
London's smart set in the late 1970s and later led cricket-mad Pakistan
to victory in the 1992 World Cup. Famed for his aggressive,
never-say-die attitude when he played the game, he seems to have brought
that approach into politics.
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Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran
Khan, gestures as he speaks to the members of the media at his
residence in Lahore, Pakistan May 18, 2023. REUTERS/Mohsin Raza
After years in the wilderness, rival political parties said the
military supported his ascent to become prime minister in 2018 while
Khan himself blamed the same generals for his ouster last year. The
military denies any role in his taking office or his ouster.
Since then Khan has shown an uncanny ability to mobilise crowds and
some analysts say he has the support of many in the rank-and-file of
the military.
"Khan has weaponised the resentment his followers feel about his
removal into a frontal assault on army leaders," said Aqil Shah, an
academic and author of the book "The Army and Democracy in
Pakistan".
His popularity remains high - well ahead of his opponents, according
to local polls - in the run-up to national elections which are due
by November this year.
However, Khan is vulnerable on many fronts. If he is found guilty in
any of the numerous cases against him, ranging from corruption to
inciting terror, it would in all probability disqualify him from
participating in the polls.
The army's vast intelligence apparatus will also turn the screws on
PTI's leadership, many of whom have already jumped ship because of
pressure and fear of retribution, Khan says.
THE WAY FORWARD
Analysts say talks are necessary between Khan, the army and the
civilian government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to defuse the
situation - but there have been no indications of any negotiated
settlement.
Khan has dismissed the Sharif government as inconsequential.
Information Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb told Reuters that Khan's
supporters attacked "sensitive military installations" and that the
law would take its course.
Zulfiqar Bukhari, one of Khan's few close aides yet to be arrested,
says the PTI has reached out for talks with the military, but had
got no response.
"Unfortunately, no one wants to listen," he said.
Some analysts believe Khan will have to placate the generals in some
way for him to survive.
Others said the gloves were off and the military would not back
down.
"Ultimate power in Pakistan flows through the barrel of the gun,"
said Shah, the academic. "The military is unlikely to give Khan the
off-ramp any time soon."
Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States
and currently a scholar at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said
the military has lost standing significantly and it will not accept
being attacked and taunted.
"The military's power comes from its ability to deploy force, not
popularity - Pakistan's generals like being liked but they like
being in control even more," he said.
(Additional reporting by Ariba Shahid; Editing by Raju
Gopalakrishnan)
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