Drier weather would return Australia to its long-term trend of
hotter weather and declining rainfall after a record three straight
years of La Nina, the colder counterpart pattern that brought record
floods and rainfall to the east coast.
The El Nino, associated with less rainfall in winter and spring, is
at least twice as likely this year, the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology said in a forecast on Tuesday.
However, while temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are very
likely to hit the El Nino threshold during winter, the atmospheric
conditions required to declare one have not yet appeared, it added.
Dry weather could be exacerbated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
pattern turning positive, as suggested by five models of the bureau.
But the IOD is neutral at the moment, and the bureau warned of the
general low accuracy of long-range forecasts made at this time of
year.
Forecasts for the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Southern Annual
Mode, two weather features, are also trending towards conditions
associated with drier weather.
Climate change has warmed Australia by around 1.5C (34.7°F) between
1910 to 2021, the bureau said. Rainfall has also declined by between
10% to 20% across Southern Australia during the April to October
cool season in recent decades.
(Reporting by Lewis Jackson; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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