NOAA forecasters estimate 12 to 17 named storms of which five to
nine of those will develop into hurricanes and one to four will
become major hurricanes during the June 1 to Nov. 30 season.
A tropical storm brings sustained winds of at least 39 miles per
hour (63 kph), a hurricane has winds of at least 74 mph and
major hurricanes pack winds of at least 111 miles per hour and
can bring devastating damage.
Last year broke a six-year string of above-normal hurricane
seasons with the strongest that year being Hurricane Ian, which
spawned 150 mph winds and hit Florida and South Carolina.
There is a 40% chance of a normal hurricane season and 30%
chances each of an above-average or below-average season, NOAA
Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a media briefing.
NOAA estimates a 93% chance of an El Nino weather phenomenon
during the core hurricane season, said Matthew Rosencrans,
NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster.
El Nino causes wind conditions in the upper atmosphere that slow
down developing storms in the Atlantic Ocean. Its limiting
influence on storms, however, could be offset by warmer ocean
temperatures that create favorable conditions, NOAA said.
Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures "are warmer than we were
last year and as warm was we were in 2020, Rosencrans told the
media conference.
Normally when there is El Nino, the models call for between six
and 18 named storms but the warm ocean temperatures have led to
a combination not usually seen, Rosencrans added.
The combination has added significant uncertainty to this year's
hurricane forecast, resulting in the certainty being a 40%
chance of a normal hurricane season and not the normal 60%, he
said.
(Reporting by Curtis Williams in HoustonEditing by Marguerita
Choy)
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