US job growth probably slowed in October due to UAW strike
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[November 03, 2023] By
Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely slowed in October partly
due to strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against Detroit's
"Big Three" car makers, which depressed manufacturing payrolls.
The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be
pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is
expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual
wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in
the supply of workers.
The report could bolster the view that the Federal Reserve need not
raise interest rates further. The U.S. central bank held rates unchanged
on Wednesday but left the door open to a further increase, a nod to the
economy's resilience.
"The hiring figures will ultimately be somewhat depressed by strike
activity, though the labor market is still likely to remain quite
tight," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in
Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is likely to
report that nonfarm payrolls increased by 180,000 jobs last month after
surging 336,000 in September, according to a Reuters survey of
economists. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after
advancing 17,000 in September.
Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike
during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment
report. The strikes have since ended, which could provide a lift to
November's payrolls.
Government employment, a big driver of payroll gains in September as
state and local governments recruited for the new school year, likely
moderated last month. Technical factors, related to the model used to
strip out seasonal fluctuations from data, could affect the payrolls
count.
"There is a large downward seasonal adjustment to payrolls in October,
around 900,000," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New
York. "This would imply weakness in seasonally adjusted figures if the
usual increase in employment, which typically occurs ahead of the
holiday season, is not as large as normal. Anecdotes from various
companies have suggested holiday season hiring should still be robust
this year."
RESILIENT ECONOMY
The labor market was the major force pushing third-quarter U.S. gross
domestic product growth to nearly 5%.
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A "now hiring" sign is displayed outside Taylor Party and Equipment
Rentals in Somerville, Massachusetts, U.S., September 1, 2022.
REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
The unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.8%. But the jobless rate
could still tick higher with more people entering the labor force
due partly to confidence in availability of work and worries of an
economic slowdown next year.
The expanding labor pool and fewer people changing jobs mean easing
wage pressures.
Average hourly earnings were forecast to climb 0.3%, matching
September's rise. That would lower the annual increase in wages to
4.0%, the smallest gain since June 2021, from 4.2% in September.
Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is
consistent with the Fed's 2% target.
Though wages have not been the main driver of inflation, some
economists worry recent hefty contracts, including the ones scored
by the UAW, airline pilots and the union representing UPS workers,
could complicate the Fed's fight against inflation.
They said the recent surge in worker productivity would not be
enough to offset higher compensation as the economy was now
predominantly services.
"Historically, we've been getting productivity gains out of
manufacturing, but manufacturing is becoming a smaller and smaller
share of the total pie," said Sung Won Sohn, Finance and Economics
professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. "We will
see wage inflation becoming more of a problem, I wouldn't say wage
price spiral, but certainly that is one of the reasons why we're not
going to see a significant slowdown in the inflation rate from where
we are."
Others disagreed, saying the hefty contracts would only become an
issue for wage inflation if the Fed raised rates too high and choked
off demand. They viewed the UAW contract as getting wages in the
auto sector more aligned with the surge productivity during the
COVID-19 pandemic.
"If they have a multi-year agreement, which says that they want
wages to rise by 6% or 7%, then you need to generate the
productivity gains to support it," said Brian Bethune, an Economics
professor at Boston College.
"If the Fed slows down the economy too much, that's not going to
happen, and we will end up in trap of slow demand, low productivity
and high unit labor costs."
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by David Gregorio)
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