India-Canada diplomatic thaw remains remote despite visa easing
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[November 06, 2023]
By Krishn Kaushik and Steve Scherer
NEW DELHI/OTTAWA (Reuters) - Mending frayed diplomatic relations between
India and Canada will be a long process after each side adopted
maximalist positions, despite New Delhi's surprise move to ease some
visa curbs on Canadians, officials and experts say.
India recently decided to partially restore visa services, weeks after
suspending them in anger at Ottawa's claim that Indian agents may have
been involved in the murder of a Canadian Sikh separatist leader from
Punjab state.
Mutual recriminations since that accusation, which India strongly
denies, have strained ties between the two countries - close for almost
a century and with extensive links through the Sikh diaspora - to their
worst in memory.
And while India's relaxation on visas may have raised some expectations
of improved relations, it was not a breakthrough, as neither side has
much incentive to hasten a return to normalcy, officials and experts in
both countries said.
Neither New Delhi nor Ottawa looks likely to take dramatic steps to
reconcile soon as Canada's murder investigation proceeds and Prime
Minister Narendra Modi prepares for Indian national elections by May.
"The relationship is in deep crisis, perhaps its worst ever," said
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson
Center in Washington. "Each side may have a strong interest in the
crisis not getting completely out of control, but that doesn't mean
there are strong incentives to resolve the crisis."
Ajay Bisaria, India's ambassador to Canada from 2020 to 2022, said the
relationship is in a "de-escalation phase" following "quiet diplomacy".
Even with the reprieve, the visa curbs are expected to hinder the
movement of tens of thousands of Indians and people of Indian origin who
live in Canada or plan to study there.
Although both governments have spared business and trade links, the
acrimony has delayed discussions on a free-trade deal and threatens
Group of Seven member Canada's Indo-Pacific plans, where New Delhi is
critical to efforts to check an increasingly assertive China.
'DIFFICULT MOMENT'
On Sept. 18 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada was "actively
pursuing credible allegations" linking Indian government agents to the
June killing in a Vancouver suburb of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, 45, who had
advocated the fringe position seeking to carve an independent Sikh
homeland of Khalistan out of India.
Canada expelled India's intelligence chief in Ottawa. India quickly
responded by halting 13 categories of visas for Canadians and cutting
Canada's diplomatic presence in India, a move Ottawa said violated the
Vienna Conventions.
Then on Oct. 25, New Delhi said it would resume issuing visas under four
categories, a measure Indian officials said aims to help people of
Indian origin travel to India during the wedding season beginning this
month.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes Canada Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center
for the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023.
Evan Vucci/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
"This is not a thaw," an Indian foreign ministry official told
Reuters. "People can read whatever they want into it."
Ottawa triggered the crisis and must take the first step towards
climbing down from its position, another official said.
A senior Canadian government source said that while Ottawa’s
ultimate goal was to return to where things were, unpredictability
in coming months over the murder investigation and trial, as well as
India's elections, could interfere.
"This is a difficult moment, but Canada is not abandoning its
Indo-Pacific strategy," the source said.
'MODEST DE-ESCALATION'
Officials in India and Canada spoke on condition of anonymity as
they were not authorised to speak on the subject.
The Indian foreign ministry did not respond to a request for
comment. Canada's foreign ministry pointed to comments made by
Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie on Oct. 30.
"We have a long-term approach when it comes to India because this is
a relationship that has spanned decades, and we all know that we
have very strong people-to-people ties with the country," Jolie
said, adding she continued to talk to her Indian counterpart.
Canada has the largest Sikh population outside Punjab, with 770,000
people reporting Sikhism as their religion in the 2021 census. India
is by far Canada's largest source of foreign students, accounting
for 40% of study permit holders - a vital source for Canada's
fast-growing international education business, contributing over
C$20 billion ($15 billion) to the economy annually.
India-Canada tensions over Sikh separatism have haunted the
relationship since the 1980s. Modi, who heads a Hindu-nationalist
party and cultivates a strongman image, is unlikely to be seen
backing down, especially before the elections.
Despite the "modest de-escalation" over visas, Kugelman said most of
the retaliatory measures remain "and there's still a lot of anger on
both sides. So we shouldn't overstate the de-escalatory potential
here".
Michael Bociurkiw, a foreign policy expert at the Atlantic Council,
said "a pause" was needed "for cooler heads to prevail and to get
the relationship back on track".
"But it is not going to happen overnight. It will take time."
(Reporting by Krishn Kaushik in New Delhi and Steve Scherer in
Ottawa; Editing by YP Rajesh and William Mallard)
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