Futures dip as rate cut optimism wanes; more Fed speakers on tap

[November 07, 2023]  By Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A

(Reuters) - Futures tracking Wall Street's main indexes fell on Tuesday as optimism over potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year waned, with investors on tenterhooks ahead of more commentary from central bank officials.

After a stellar rally last week driven by tumbling Treasury yields, equities have lost momentum in recent days as investors await commentary by Fed policymakers for any signs of a pushback against expectations that U.S. interest rates have peaked.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari doused hopes of early rate cuts late on Monday, saying the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation.

Adding to the pressure on stocks, U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded from multi-week lows in the previous session, ahead of large bond auctions this week that could determine whether there is enough demand for U.S. government debt.

The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield was last at 4.6204%, slightly lower than Monday's level.

Market participants will parse commentary from Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams later on Tuesday for more clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will grab the spotlight on Wednesday.

Uncertainty about the timing of potential rate cuts and some dismal corporate forecasts for the fourth quarter have cast a doubt on whether there could be a year-end rally for stocks.

"The chatter of potentially higher-for-longer rates, growing signs of slowing global economy and the rising recession odds don’t offer a bright outlook for equities into the year end," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File photo

"Seasonally speaking, November and December are known to be good months for the S&P500 stocks. But this year, the picture is overshadowed by a lot of weak guidance and revenue warnings."

The corporate earnings season has entered its last leg, with a majority of the companies in the S&P 500 having already reported results for the third quarter.

EBay and Bumble are among those scheduled to post their results late on Tuesday.

At 6:57 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 106 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.5 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 43.25 points, or 0.28%.

Oil firms including Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum fell between 0.8% and 1% in premarket trading, tracking a 2% decline in crude prices on mixed economic data from China. [O/R]

Shares of Intel edged up 0.6% after a report said the chipmaker was the leading candidate to likely get billions in government funding for secure defense-chip facilities.

(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Maju Samuel)

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