This year set to be warmest in 125,000 years, EU scientists say
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[November 08, 2023]
By Kate Abnett and Gloria Dickie
BRUSSELS (Reuters) -This year is set to be the world's warmest in
125,000 years, European Union scientists said on Wednesday, after data
showed last month was the hottest October on record by a massive margin.
Last month exceeded the previous highest October average temperature,
from 2019, by 0.4 degrees Celsius, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change
Service (C3S) Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said, describing the
temperature anomaly as "very extreme".
That has made 2023 as a whole "virtually certain" to be the warmest year
recorded, C3S said in a statement.
The heat is a result of continued greenhouse gas emissions from the
burning of fossil fuels, combined with the emergence this year of the
naturally occurring El Nino climate pattern, which warms the surface
waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The current hottest year on record is 2016 — another El Nino year —
although 2023 is on course to overtake that.
Copernicus' dataset goes back to 1940. "When we combine our data with
the IPCC, then we can say that this is the warmest year for the last
125,000 years," Burgess said.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Nov/08/images/ads/current/peasley_lda_PPP_2023.png)
The longer-term data from U.N. climate science panel IPCC includes
readings from sources such as ice cores, tree rings and coral deposits.
Climate change is fuelling increasingly destructive extremes. In 2023,
that includes floods that killed thousands of people in Libya, severe
heatwaves in South America, and Canada's worst wildfire season on
record.
Globally, the average surface air temperature in October of 15.3 Celsius
(59.5 degrees Fahrenheit), was 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than the
average for October in 1850-1900, which Copernicus defines as the
pre-industrial period.
The only other month to breach the temperature record by such a large
margin was September 2023.
"September really, really surprised us," Burgess said. "So after last
month, it's hard to determine whether we're in a new climate state. But
now records keep tumbling and they're surprising me less than they did a
month ago."
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A woman walks to fetch water from a nearby hand-pump with a water
cooler on her head, during a heatwave, on the outskirts of
Jacobabad, Pakistan, May 16, 2022. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro/File Photo
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EL NINO EFFECT
The combination of human-caused climate change and the naturally
occurring El Nino is stoking concerns of more heat-fuelled
destruction to come - including in Australia, which is bracing for a
severe bushfire season amid hot and dry conditions.
The ongoing El Nino weather pattern is set to last until at least
April 2024, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.
"Most El Nino years are now record-breakers because the extra global
warmth of El Nino adds to the steady ramp of human-caused warming,"
said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at University of
Pennsylvania.
The scientists' findings come three weeks before governments meet in
Dubai for this year's U.N. climate negotiations, known as COP28.
There, nearly 200 countries will negotiate stronger action to fight
climate change.
A central issue at COP28 will be whether governments agree — for the
first time — to phase out the burning of carbon dioxide-emitting
fossil fuels.
Under fossil fuel producers' current plans to extract coal, oil and
gas, by 2030 global fossil fuel production would be more than double
the levels that are deemed consistent with meeting globally agreed
goals to limit climate change, the United Nations and researchers
said in a report on Wednesday.
Despite countries setting increasingly ambitious targets to
gradually cut emissions, so far that has not happened. Global CO2
emissions hit a record high in 2022.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Nov/08/images/ads/current/farmersgrain_sda_FFARM_2023.png)
"We must not let the devastating floods, wildfires, storms, and
heatwaves seen this year become the new normal," said Piers Forster,
climate scientist at University of Leeds.
"By rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade,
we can halve the rate of warming," he added.
(Reporting by Kate Abnett; Editing by Jan Harvey and Alison
Williams)
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