Oil wavers on weak demand outlook in US and China, Fed hedging

[November 13, 2023]  By Paul Carsten

LONDON -Oil prices wavered on Monday, as renewed concerns over waning demand in the United States and China, coupled with mixed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, kept markets uncertain.

Brent crude futures for January were down 8 cents at $81.35 a barrel at 0916 GMT, after losing $1 in earlier trading, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $77.11, down 6 cents.

Prices gained nearly 2% on Friday as Iraq voiced support for oil cuts by OPEC+, but lost about 4% for the week, recording a three-week losing streak for the first time since May.

"Investors are more focused on slow demand in the United States and China while worries over the potential supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat receded," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week crude oil production in the United States this year will rise by slightly less than previously expected while demand will fall.

Next year, per capita U.S. gasoline consumption could fall to the lowest level in two decades, it said.

Markets were wary of potential U.S. policy tightening after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that it could raise interest rates again if progress on curbing inflation stalls.

More hawkish Fed speak is "not a prospect that crude oil will welcome given that recent data in China and the U.S. has brought growth fears back to the surface," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Weak economic data last week from China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, increased fears of faltering demand, with refiners asking for less supply from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, for December.

In October, China's consumer prices fell to pandemic-era lows, sparking concern about the country's economic recovery.

Still, if WTI approaches $75 a barrel, "we will likely see support buying on expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia would decide to continue their voluntary supply cuts after December," NS Trading's Kikukawa said.

Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed last week they would continue with their additional voluntary oil output cuts until the end of the year as concerns over demand and economic growth continue to drag on crude markets.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, will meet on Nov. 26.

(Reporting by Paul Carsten in London and Yuka Obayashi and Colleen HoweEditing by Lincoln Feast, Bernadette Baum and Louise Heavens)

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