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But
the poll of 11 economists, conducted Nov. 20-28, also showed
expectations for 1% growth in new home prices in 2024 were
little changed from an August poll. Economists said more
measures from authorities are needed.
Defaults on debt payments by many developers in China's
cash-squeezed and highly indebted property sector have sparked
fears of a broader financial crisis, weighed on consumer
confidence and hindered economic growth.
Authorities, particularly those in major cities, have embarked
on a string of steps to bolster demand, including allowing
smaller down payments, easing curbs on home buying such as the
number of homes that can be bought, lowering borrowing costs and
encouraging the extension of loans.
But most analysts believe these actions must be complemented by
stronger fiscal and monetary action.
"There is still room for easing property policies in major
cities in 2024 ... The market in first and second tier cities
will continue to outperform third and fourth cities next year, "
said Huang Yu, an analyst at real estate research firm China
Index Academy.
Estimates for home unit sales for 2023 were revised down to an
8% slide compared with predictions of a 5% drop in August, the
poll also showed. Economists also expect declines next year,
predicting a 5% fall.
"The key reason is that homebuyer confidence has not yet been
fully rebuilt," said Wang Xingping, a senior analyst at Fitch
Bohua.
According to the poll, property investment is expected to slump
10% in 2023 and then 8.4% in 2024.
Regulators are drafting a list of 50 property developers
eligible for a range of financing support, including Country
Garden and state-backed China Vanke, Bloomberg reported last
week.
(Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by)
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