How RFK Jr. could hurt Biden, Trump in 2024 election with independent
bid
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[October 03, 2023]
By Jeff Mason and Heather Timmons
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Long-shot U.S. presidential candidate Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.'s likely independent bid for the White House may complicate
the 2024 race by taking votes away from Democrat Joe Biden or Republican
Donald Trump in critical states, political analysts said.
Kennedy, an environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist, scion of the
powerful political family and son of Senator Robert F. Kennedy, is
expected to announce in Philadelphia on Oct. 9 that he will drop his
challenge to President Biden for the Democratic Party's nomination, and
run as an independent candidate instead.
The two-party system of Democrats and Republicans has dominated
presidential politics for more than a century, but third party
candidates have influenced the outcome in the past.
The success of Biden or Trump, the former president who is the
frontrunner for his party's 2024 nomination, could come down to
thousands of voters in a handful of critical states including
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. Independent voters, those
not registered with either party, are likely to be a deciding factor in
Arizona and others.
Kennedy's deep-pocketed backers and famous name, combined with a lack of
broad enthusiasm for Biden and Trump, could help him take votes from
their respective sides.
"Our concern about all third parties is that Donald Trump’s support is
limited – he’s well below 50% - but very stable," said Matt Bennett, the
co-founder of Third Way, a left-leaning political strategy firm. "Voters
who would reluctantly pick Biden in a head-to-head with Trump might jump
at the chance to vote for a Kennedy, even if they don’t know much about
him."
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Some of Kennedy's public positions align more with the Trump supporters
who have embraced anti-vaccination and conspiracy theories than with
Biden's centrist and left-leaning base. Opinion polls compiled by
FiveThirtyEight show Kennedy appeals more to Republicans than Democrats
by a large margin.
Republican strategists said they see advantages and disadvantages to
Kennedy's presence in the race.
"It could certainly siphon some votes from Trump, but it will certainly
hurt Biden much more," said Republican strategist Ford O'Connell, who
argued that Trump voters were more enthusiastic than Biden's.
Biden's 2024 re-election campaign declined to comment. Trump's campaign
did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
Children's Health Defense, a non-profit organization Kennedy founded,
spread COVID-19 vaccine misinformation, including that vaccinated
children died at a faster rate, Reuters Fact Check found.
Dozens of young children died of measles in American Samoa in 2019 after
anti-vaccine activists, including Kennedy, spread misinformation about
the vaccines' safety in the island state, according to FactCheck.org and
Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Children's Hospital of
Philadelphia's vaccine education center.
Kennedy in July testimony to Congress said he has never been opposed to
vaccines and never told the public to avoid them.
In July, White House officials joined a chorus of Democrats and medical
professionals who criticized Kennedy for claiming in a video that
COVID-19 was targeted to attack white and Black people and that Jewish
and Chinese people are most immune.
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![](../images/100323PIX/news_q1.jpg)
Democratic Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks
during The World Values Network's Presidential Candidate Series that
discusses fighting antisemitism and championing Israel, in New York
City, U.S., July 25, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Alfiky
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Oct/03/images/ads/current/atlantabank_quarter_FAIR_2023.png)
Kennedy has also suggested anti-depressants cause school shootings,
Wi-Fi radiation causes cancer and that the 2004 election that
re-elected George W. Bush was stolen, according to FactCheck.org.
About 47% of Americans polled in September by Reuters/Ipsos said
they were uninterested in getting the newest COVID-19 vaccine, with
more than one-third of those saying they believed it was dangerous.
Only 34% of Republicans said they would be interested in getting the
updated vaccine, compared with 77% of Democrats.
HIGH FAVORABILITY, TRUMP DONOR
Kennedy has higher favorability ratings than either Trump or Biden,
Reuters/Ipsos polling from September shows, with 51% of respondents
having a favorable view of him compared to 45% for Biden and 40% for
Trump. But Biden leads Kennedy by 50 points in opinion polls
tracking the Democratic nomination race, according to an average of
data by RealClearPolitics.
At 69, Kennedy might have an appeal to Americans looking for a
younger candidate than Biden, 80, and Trump, 77. Some 86% of
Americans said they believe the cutoff for serving as president
should be age 75 or younger, Reuters/Ipsos polling last November
showed.
Several Political Action Committees have already raised millions for
Kennedy's campaign, and he has the backing of popular right-leaning
podcasters and some Hollywood stars. He is married to actor Cheryl
Hines.
American Values 2024 has raised $9.8 million, according to its
latest Federal Election Committee filing, including a $4.3 million
donation from Gavin de Becker, a security consultant, and $5 million
from Timothy Mellon. Mellon, an heir to the Mellon banking family,
donated $20 million to Trump's America First Action PAC in 2020,
Open Secrets data show.
THIRD-PARTY SPOILER?
Kennedy would join academic Cornell West as a third-party candidate.
West's campaign manager, Peter Daou, welcomed Kennedy in a post on
X, formerly known as Twitter.
U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia, has flirted
with running for president as a third-party candidate, and former
U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, who campaigned on the Democratic ticket
in 2000 as former Vice President Al Gore's running mate, is the
founding chairman of No Labels, a group that could put up a 2024
presidential contender.
Biden, in an interview with ProPublica, suggested Lieberman's group
would help Trump.
"He has a democratic right to do it. There’s no reason not to do
that. Now, it’s going to help the other guy. And he knows (that),"
Biden said when asked about Lieberman. "That’s a political decision
he’s making that I obviously think is a mistake."
(Reporting by Jeff Mason and Heather Timmons; editing by Lisa
Shumaker and Grant McCool)
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