Global economy's glide to 'soft landing' gets bumpy as bond yields jump
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[October 06, 2023] By
Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rocketing U.S. government bond yields that have
led to a global jump in borrowing costs are raising new risks for
economic policymakers hoping to lower inflation without triggering a
major crisis.
The world's finance officials, who will gather in Morocco next week for
the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank,
may disagree over the exact drivers of a global bond rout that now
appears to reflect more than guessing how far central bankers will raise
interest rates.
The cause - whether high government deficits, China's suddenly turgid
economy, or political dysfunction in the U.S. Congress - may be less
important, though, than the implications for a world financial system
that had seemed headed for a "soft landing" from the post-pandemic
breakout of inflation.
Central banks around the world approved rapid-fire interest rate
increases in response to rising prices, and officials throughout the
policy tightening welcomed the largely smooth adjustment in global
financial conditions as a testament to better monetary and fiscal
management across many countries.
But after what was deemed "a summer of resilience," Goldman Sachs
economists said "cracks" are appearing as emerging market sovereign
bonds come under pressure on the heels of rising yields on U.S.
Treasuries, the world's risk-free benchmark that draws money from other
investments as interest rates rise.
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The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the
first time since 2007. While it was routinely above that level through
the first years of this century, analysts say the speed of its rise is
noteworthy, particularly as it occurred even as the Federal Reserve and
other central banks have signaled their own rate hikes are near an end.
"There should be concern less about the level and more about the pace of
change," said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia
Threadneedle.
Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the
past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed
rate hike during that period. "That is a rate of change that cannot be
sustained, and if we continue to move in that direction, then we would
need to see action from the Fed" to blunt the impact, Tannuzzo said.
SPILLOVER RISK
The IMF and World Bank meetings are a chance to take stock of the state
of the global economy, and are accompanied by signature reports on the
world economic outlook and the state of global financial markets.
Inflation and the impact of tighter monetary policy have been focal
points since prices began a sharp climb in 2021. The IMF's last Global
Financial Stability Report, issued in April, showed risks to the
financial system were top of mind after several high-profile U.S. bank
failures in the prior month.
But that moment passed without any broader contagion, and the outlook
turned steadily brighter from there, particularly in the U.S.: The
prospect of continued economic growth alongside falling inflation - the
so-called soft-landing scenario - went from a history-defying aspiration
to, in effect, the Fed's baseline.
That sort of best-case outcome would have positive global repercussions.
Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier
demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed
rate hikes hit a stopping point.
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![](../images/100623PIX/busine81.jpg)
A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of
the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last
month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023.
REUTERS/Abdelhak Balhaki/File Photo
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The fast moves in financial markets, however, could prove
destabilizing, with the impact felt through rising bond yields, a
stronger dollar, and, if sustained, renewed inflation pressures in
other countries.
"There are effects that could happen if you create budget strains in
other countries or ultimately budget crises in other countries. I
think that is something that the Fed needs to be watching," Karen
Dynan, an economics professor at Harvard University, said during a
presentation last week at the Peterson Institute for International
Economics in Washington. "Those sorts of crises could spill over
into broader financial markets and then pose a real threat to our
economy."
Fed officials don't see that yet.
In comments earlier this week, a number of Fed regional bank
presidents saw the activity in the Treasuries market as in line with
what would be expected from the central bank's rate increases,
saying it has not had the sort of outsized impact on consumer or
business spending that would warrant worrying whether policymakers
had gone too far with the rate hikes.
UNANTICIPATED TIGHTENING
But the jump in yields also demonstrates some of the vagaries of
central banking that officials are likely to try to puzzle through
next week.
Global growth, particularly in light of China's current weakness,
already is expected to slow. After the massive worldwide fiscal
response to the coronavirus pandemic, many national budgets may be
too stretched to respond forcefully to a currency crisis or
financial instability sparked by dollar-driven shifts in capital
flows.
Institutions like the Fed can control an overnight interest rate
designed to set rates for other types of securities. But markets
influenced by macroeconomic views, the outlook for inflation, and
factors like political risks ultimately determine the borrowing
costs footed by governments, companies and households.
It is those rates that can propel or depress an economy, and feed or
stifle inflation. The issue before policymakers is whether the
recent market moves have gone beyond what is needed to tame
inflation and created unwanted risks to growth.
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So far, the moves do not suggest a burgeoning crisis, economists at
Capital Economics wrote this week, saying comparisons to last year's
upheaval over U.K. government bond yields or the market illiquidity
seen at the start of the coronavirus pandemic are overblown.
But it's also the type of environment that could "morph into
something more serious" if bond losses push a key institution
towards insolvency, as happened at California-based Silicon Valley
Bank in March, or erodes confidence to the point where holders of
securities start selling at fire-sale prices, they wrote.
The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond
yields rise," they said. "The big risk stems from an unanticipated
tightening of financial conditions" that would strain government,
household and business budgets alike, translate into bank stress,
and reverse economic growth.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)
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